800
FXUS66 KSEW 241117
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
417 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY. POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION MONDAY BEFORE THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING.
DOPPLER RADAR HAS PRECIPITATION ECHOES OVER THE NORTH COAST AND
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR IS STAYING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRONT JUST CROSSING 130W AT 3 AM THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FACTORS SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT. ONE THE DIGGING TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN
135-140W AND TWO A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH THE RAIN ARRIVING EAST
OF PUGET SOUND BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z ( 8 AM TO 11 AM ). ONCE THE
RAIN STARTS IT WILL RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE FRONT
NOT REACHING THE COAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE STALLING FRONT
HAS ALLOWED THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN UP OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR WITH NAS WHIDBEY ISLAND ALREADY REPORTING
GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WHATCOM, SAN JUAN AND ISLAND COUNTY PLUS THE PORT
TOWNSEND AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 45 TO 50 MPH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES WITH WINDS EASING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES ON THE
COAST AND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES NOT WARMING MUCH WITH THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY
THIS EVENING. QUICK POST FRONTAL WESTERLY SURGE DOWN THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL CREATE A BRIEF CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN KING COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PUSHING WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE AREA THE POOL OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE PRETTY QUICKLY RESULTING IN A
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE 40S.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY WITH RAIN
BEGINNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR IN THE
MORNING SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PESKY PARENT SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT STAYING OFFSHORE WITH THE WINDIEST
LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST AND A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
INCH OVER THE INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS IN THE 4000-4500 FOOT RANGE
BY THE END OF THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS A LOT OF SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO IT SO EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW LEVEL IS BELOW THE
HIGHER PASSES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES.
THE VOLCANOES WILL DO MUCH BETTER AS FAR AS NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW
MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE WILL BE A
RAPID INCREASE IN THE WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE KOLM-
KBLI GRADIENT INCREASING TO NEAR PLUS 7 OR 8 MB BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURGE THROUGH
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. COULD SEE SOME HIGH WINDS ON WHIDBEY ISLAND WITH THE
WESTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE STRAIT. SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF
SNOHOMISH COUNTY IN THE SHORT TERM. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THAT THERE MIGHT NEED TO BE A SHORT WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THIS BURST OF WINDS. CONVERGENCE ZONE
FORMING EAST OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BUT WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS THE ZONE WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE CASCADES PRETTY
QUICKLY. SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 3000-3500 FEET AND WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING IN ALL
THE PASSES EXCEPT SNOQUALMIE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING AT 06Z SUNDAY ( 11 PM SATURDAY ) FOR THE
CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FEET.
WEAKEST OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
SUNDAY. JET AIMED INTO SOUTHERN OREGON SO WESTERN WASHINGTON
ONLY GETTING THE NORTHERN/WEAKER PORTION OF THE FRONT. SYSTEM
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP SNOW
GOING IN THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS REMAINING IN THE 3000-3500
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL EASE QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COMING TO AN END AT 06Z
MONDAY ( 11 PM SUNDAY ). FORECASTED NEW SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE 24
HOUR PERIOD THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT 6 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE
3500 FEET WITH MORE ON MOUNT RAINIER. THERE IS A REALLY GOOD
CHANCE SEATTLE WILL SEE MORE RAIN BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
WE GOT ON THE FIRST 23 DAYS OF THE MONTH ( 1.06 INCHES ). FELTON
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT MONDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM TRIES TO FIGHT THROUGH THE
RIDGE. MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM REACHING THE AREA TUESDAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT BETTER CONSISTENCY LATER IN THE
PERIOD WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AIMED AT
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER IN THE WEEK. FELTON
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING THE EXCEPTION BEING KHQM, WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LESSENING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT TIMES AT MOST
INTERIOR TERMINALS AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE AREA.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE BREAKING UP LATER THIS EVENING, WHERE
VFR COULD RETURN FOR MOST LOCATIONS. S/SW WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 20 TO 25
KTS LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS BETWEEN KPAE AND KBLI
WILL SEE GUSTS SOMEWHERE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS AT TIMES ALONG WITH
LLWS.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN STARTS TO MOVE
ONSHORE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES IN LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. CEILINGS LOOK TO
IMPROVE TO VFR LATER ON ALONG WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF BY THE
EVENING HOURS. S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS
MORNING SO ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAF THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SOUTHERLIES.
MAZURKIEWICZ
MARINE
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA WATERS
TODAY. A SECOND STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SYSTEM SUNDAY. SMALL BREAK
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES
TUESDAY.
GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND PORTIONS OF
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL COME TO AN END TODAY. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT
THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT WITH SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVER ALL THE
WATERS EITHER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE
QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. MORE POSSIBLE GALES FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK WITH MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS HEADING OUR
WAY.
SEAS SUBSIDING THIS MORNING TO 12 TO 16 FEET AND TO 11 TO 13
FEET TONIGHT. SEAS RISING AGAIN INTO THE 12 TO 16 FOOT RANGE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS STAYING ABOVE 10 FEET SUNDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY. FELTON
HYDROLOGY
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE OLYMPICS
THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINING IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 7000 FEET WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
LOWER TO NEAR 6000 FEET. THIS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE OLYMPICS IN THE FORM OF SNOW DECREASING THE
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF. CURRENT HYDROGRAPH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
STILL HAS THE RIVER CRESTING LATER TODAY NEAR ACTION STAGE.
ACTION STAGE IS A FOOT AND A HALF BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL RISE SHARPLY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES, ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR
THE COAST AND A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE LOWLANDS. RIVERS
STARTING FROM VERY LOW LEVELS SO EVEN THE WITH SHARP RISES LATE
FRIDAY RIVERS WILL BE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WILL
CAUSE LESS OF A REACTION ON AREA RIVERS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE RISK OF URBAN/SMALL
STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POOR/BLOCKED
DRAINAGE (LEAVES WILL BE FALLING DURING THIS EVENT DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS). RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO POSE RISKS TO THE MORE
VULNERABLE BURN SCARS IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISLAND COUNTY-
LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-PORT TOWNSEND AREA-SAN
JUAN COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES
OF SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF
SOUTHERN KING COUNTY-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTIES.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page