791
FXUS66 KSEW 241710
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1010 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY. POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION MONDAY BEFORE THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS W
WA PRETTY SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, ZOOMING OUT ONE CAN SEE
THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH MOST OBS SITES REPORTING
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WHILE THERE IS ACTIVITY GETTING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF, PRECIP IS GENERALLY LIGHTER AND NOT QUITE AS
UNIFORM. THAT SHOULD CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT STILL
SEEING GUSTY WIND OBS OVER THE EASTERN STRAIT AND ADJACENT SHORES,
SO INHERITED WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD, EVEN AT ITS TAIL END. ON THAT
NOTE, GIVEN HOW WINDS HAVE EASED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT, SAID HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD TO EXPIRE AT ITS ASSIGNED TIME.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, MODELS STILL SHOWING A SMALL
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY. HOWEVER, BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY, THE NEXT FRONT IS ALREADY
REACHING THE COAST, BRINGING A RETURN TO STRATIFORM RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWING
SOON AFTERWARD WILL KEEP CONSISTENT PRECIP GOING FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY
AS WELL...EVEN THOUGH SAID PRECIP MAY TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PERIOD LEADS TO THE TWO MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE DAY. FIRST, WINDS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. LATEST FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
PRIOR RUNS ADVERTISING MORE WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND WILL NEED TO SCRUTINIZE OUTPUTS BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION IF ANOTHER WIND HEADLINE MIGHT BE NEEDED. THE SECOND ISSUE
IS THE TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE
POINT WHERE PRECIP IN THE PASSES WOULD MORE LIKELY BE SNOW THAN
RAIN...WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST PROBLEM
ARISES WHEN CONSIDERING THAT PRECIP ACTIVITY AS SNOW LEVELS FALL IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY THAN STRATIFORM. THAT ON/OFF
PATTERN COULD IMPACT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. INHERITED FORECAST HAS
OPTED TO ADDRESS THIS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES ABOVE 3500 FT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FIT SOLUTION
FOR THE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. WHILE SOME STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE CASCADES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ACTIVITY OVER THE REMAINDER OF
W WA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF, LEADING TO A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM ON AN INCREMENTAL COOLING TREND. HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, COOLING SOME FOR SATURDAY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY.
18
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM
TRIES TO FIGHT THROUGH THE RIDGE. MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM REACHING THE
AREA TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT BETTER CONSISTENCY LATER IN THE
PERIOD WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AIMED AT
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER IN THE WEEK. FELTON
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS EARLY WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING KHQM AND NOW KOLM WHERE SHOWERS ARE LESSENING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT TIMES AT MOST INTERIOR TERMINALS AS
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE AREA.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE BREAKING UP LATER THIS EVENING, WHERE VFR
COULD RETURN FOR MOST LOCATIONS. S/SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 20 TO 25 KTS
LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS BETWEEN KPAE AND KBLI WILL
SEE GUSTS SOMEWHERE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS AT TIMES ALONG WITH LLWS.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL. CAN'T RULE
OUT MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
UNDER HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS LOOK TO IMPROVE LATER ON ALONG
WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF BY THE EVENING HOURS. S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING SO ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF LLWS IN
THE TAF THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SOUTHERLIES.
MAZURKIEWICZ/MCMILLIAN
MARINE
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA WATERS
TODAY. A SECOND STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SYSTEM SUNDAY. SMALL BREAK
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES
TUESDAY.
GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND PORTIONS OF
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL COME TO AN END TODAY. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT
THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT WITH SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVER ALL THE
WATERS EITHER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE
QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. MORE POSSIBLE GALES FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK WITH MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS HEADING OUR
WAY.
SEAS SUBSIDING THIS MORNING TO 12 TO 16 FEET AND TO 11 TO 13
FEET TONIGHT. SEAS RISING AGAIN INTO THE 12 TO 16 FOOT RANGE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS STAYING ABOVE 10 FEET SUNDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY. FELTON
HYDROLOGY
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE OLYMPICS
THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINING IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 7000 FEET WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
LOWER TO NEAR 6000 FEET. THIS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE OLYMPICS IN THE FORM OF SNOW DECREASING THE
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF. CURRENT HYDROGRAPH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
STILL HAS THE RIVER CRESTING LATER TODAY NEAR ACTION STAGE.
ACTION STAGE IS A FOOT AND A HALF BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL RISE SHARPLY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES, ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR
THE COAST AND A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE LOWLANDS. RIVERS
STARTING FROM VERY LOW LEVELS SO EVEN THE WITH SHARP RISES LATE
FRIDAY RIVERS WILL BE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WILL
CAUSE LESS OF A REACTION ON AREA RIVERS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE RISK OF URBAN/SMALL
STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POOR/BLOCKED
DRAINAGE (LEAVES WILL BE FALLING DURING THIS EVENT DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS). RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO POSE RISKS TO THE MORE
VULNERABLE BURN SCARS IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISLAND COUNTY-
LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-PORT TOWNSEND AREA-SAN
JUAN COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES
OF SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF
SOUTHERN KING COUNTY-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
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