265
FXUS66 KSEW 242223
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
325 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAINFALL AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
SHOWERS. POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY BEFORE THE ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS
STEADFAST IN KEEPING CLOUDS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER W WA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BACK EDGE IS STARTING TO APPROACH THE FAR
NW CORNER OF THE STATE. ON RADAR, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP HAS
WORKED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH PORTIONS OF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ALREADY SEEING PRECIP END OR DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
SIGNIFICANTLY TO JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WHILE THIS
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA
TONIGHT, THE CURRENT SWATH OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA, INCLUDING THE
I-5 CORRIDOR, WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THOSE
SEEKING TO GET A JUMP ON THEIR WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS COULD BE
FELT ON LOCAL BURN SCARS FROM RECENT WILDFIRES, AS RAINFALL RATES
COULD TRIGGER AREAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SLIGHT BREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT EXITS...WITH MOST PRECIP TAPERING OFF IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 5
AM TIME FRAME. BUT BY SUNRISE SATURDAY, RAINFALL WILL RESUME AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO W WA AND CROSSES THE AREA. RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
TAPERING TO SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND THUSLY KEEPING PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF W WA WITH HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED IN THE MID-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST IN CONSULTATION WITH
PQR...HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA POSES MORE COMPLICATIONS.
SOME MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-45
MPH RANGE, WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MEET HEADLINE CRITERIA...BUT THE
AVERAGE LEANS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THAT...MAKING THIS EVENT
MORE BORDERLINE. THE CONFOUNDING ISSUE BOILS DOWN TO FOLIAGE. AS IT
IS STILL RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE PACNW WET SEASON, A FAIR AMOUNT OF
TREES STILL HAVE LEAVES AND AS SUCH MAY BE PRONE TO COMPLICATIONS
FROM LOWER WIND SPEEDS. IN THIS REGARD, STILL WRESTLING WITH THIS
ISSUE AND ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE MERITED BEYOND WHEN THIS
DISCUSSION IS PUBLISHED.
SHIFTING FOCUS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SNOWFALL CONCERNS LINGER
DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION, THE FALLING SNOW LEVELS COINCIDING WITH PRECIP
TRANSITION FROM STRATIFORM TO SHOWERY LEAVES ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THERE IS NO STRONG METEOROLOGICAL
ARGUMENT AGAINST INHERITED FORECAST AND AS SUCH, INHERITED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A MINOR RIDGE WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM REACHING THE COAST MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM ON AN INCREMENTAL COOLING TREND. HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, COOLING SOME FOR SATURDAY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY.
THE BRIEF RIDGE WILL ALLOW SOME SLIGHT WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.
18
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WHILE SOME CONSENSUS IS
EMERGING FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA BUT
DETAILS GET SKETCHY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP
AND LINGER OF IF IT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN FAVOR OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS, A CONSENSUS DOES EMERGE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS A MINOR RIDGE BRINGS ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FOR W WA BY
THE WEEKEND.
18
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS
WESTERN WA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
BROUGHT DOWN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AS A MIX
OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
TERMINALS AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE AREA. RAIN IS ON
TRACK TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING, WHERE VFR COULD RETURN FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BRIEFLY FOR TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
ANOTHER THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY UNDER HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES. BREEZY WINDS TODAY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT,
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KSEA...A STRONG FRONT HAS USHERED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
BRINGING DOWN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND HERE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A RETURN OF BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING - AFTERNOON AS AN ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES, BRINGING A SHOT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS.
SW SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MCMILLIAN
MARINE
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED THROUGH AREA WATERS
THIS EVENING. A SECOND STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SYSTEM SUNDAY. SMALL BREAK
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT
THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT WITH SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET. THE NEXT
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR JUST ABOUT ALL THE
WATERS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE QUICKLY
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. MORE POSSIBLE GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS HEADING OUR WAY. SEAS 11 TO 13
FEET TONIGHT. SEAS RISING AGAIN INTO THE 12 TO 16 FOOT RANGE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS STAYING ABOVE 10 FEET SUNDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE OLYMPICS
THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINING IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SNOW LEVELS NEAR
7000 FEET WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO
NEAR 6000 FEET. THIS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
OLYMPICS IN THE FORM OF SNOW DECREASING THE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF.
CURRENT HYDROGRAPH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER STILL HAS THE RIVER
CRESTING LATER TODAY NEAR ACTION STAGE. ACTION STAGE IS A FOOT AND A
HALF BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL RISE SHARPLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TWO TO
THREE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES, ONE TO TWO
INCHES FOR THE COAST AND A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE LOWLANDS. RIVERS
STARTING FROM VERY LOW LEVELS SO EVEN THE WITH SHARP RISES LATE
FRIDAY RIVERS WILL BE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE LESS OF A
REACTION ON AREA RIVERS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE RISK OF URBAN/SMALL STREAM
NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POOR/BLOCKED DRAINAGE
(LEAVES WILL BE FALLING DURING THIS EVENT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS).
RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO POSE RISKS TO THE MORE VULNERABLE BURN
SCARS IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FORECASTS ARE
SHOWING A MUCH LARGER EVENT WITH THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADE
RIVERS - SNOQUALMIE, SNOHOMISH, AND SKYKOMISH RIVERS - EXCEEDING
ACTION STAGE AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS BEGINNING TO INDICATE
POSSIBLE FLOODING. JBB/FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES
OF SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF
SOUTHERN KING COUNTY-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTIES.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
COUNTY COAST-LOWER CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY-NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-
WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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