443
FXUS66 KSEW 092245
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
245 PM PST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBOUND ON TUESDAY TO PROVIDE BRIEF DRYING BEFORE A SERIES OF
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON, IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND TODAY, PEAKING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
A SPLITTING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY, SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER INLAND THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PUGET SOUND INTO MONDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT,
WITH ROUGHLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AND UP TO AN INCH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL ALSO RETURN BACK INTO THE
50S FOR MOST AREAS, WHERE THEY WILL STAY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBOUND ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON INTO
TUESDAY, ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DRY OUT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE, PATCHY MORNING FOG MAY FORM EARLY TUESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TUESDAY WILL BE A SEASONABLE FALL DAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, SOME SUN BREAKS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH DRY CONDITIONS INLAND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
DISAGREEMENT OVER THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING
THE REGION TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE SOME
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OTHER ENSEMBLES SHOW THE LOW
STALLING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE PUSHING
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL SEE CONTINUED WET AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM.
15
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING ALOFT AHEAD
OF A TROUGH/WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE REGIONWIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO FILL IN. WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH 4-8 KT IN THE INTERIOR (COUPLE GUSTS TO 20
KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON).
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z, REACHING THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS BY 09Z. ONCE THE SHOWERS PASSES, CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR (LIKELY BETWEEN 1,000 TO 2,000 FT). THERE IS A LOWER
CHANCE (20%) OF IFR CEILINGS IN THE PUGET SOUND/KITSAP INTERIOR, AND
A HIGHER CHANCE (30%) ALONG THE COAST WITH A 25% CHANCE OF LIFR
CEILINGS. SOME MIST WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CEILINGS
(ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND THE SOUTH INTERIOR). CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT LATE IN THE MORNING. SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENTS
TO VFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING (THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS INTO HOW MUCH CEILINGS IMPROVE AND THE AREAS), BUT
MODELS AGREE THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AT LEAST ABOVE 2,000 FT GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA LIKELY TO KEEP CEILINGS LOW IS THE
SNOHOMISH COUNTY AREA, WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY PROLONG
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING (AS THE FRONT PASSES,
GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE, WITH WINDS TURNING W/NW IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
KSEA...VFR UP THROUGH 12-14Z, HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH
THE EVENING/EARLY MORNING AS SHOWERS ARRIVE AROUND 09Z. MVFR IS
LIKELY FROM ROUGHLY 14Z THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON (SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BUT THE EARLIEST LIKELY TIME FOR
CEILINGS TO LIFT ABOVE 3,000 FT IS AROUND 00-02Z TUESDAY). WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW 4-8 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH MAY TURN WINDS NORTHEAST
BRIEFLY (UNDER 6 KT) AFTER 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z BEFORE TURNING
BACK TO THE SOUTH.
HPR
MARINE
A RIDGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND TODAY AS A
SPLITTING FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY FOR RETREATING GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OVER 20 KT
(AS WELL AS 10-12 FT SEAS). A PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MAY BRING BREEZY WINDS OVER 20 KT. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KT TO
THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS MONDAY WILL DECREASE TO 6 TO 8 FT, AND INCREASE BACK TO 9 TO 12
FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HPR
HYDROLOGY
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO WESTERN WASHINGTON
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
NORTH CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LULL IN RAIN BEFORE
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
15
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
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