019
FXUS66 KSEW 101021
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
221 AM PST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND BEFORE
TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POISED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT LIGHT RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE GOING
TO BE LIGHT, ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITHIN THE
PUGET SOUND REGION TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING ALONG THE KING AND
SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND GROUNDS STILL MOISTENED FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN FILLING
IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FORECAST IS STILL SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKING OVER
IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY IS NOT LOOKING PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE, YET THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO BE RESOLVED IN REGARD
TO THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH PARKED OVER THE WEST
COAST BROADLY, BUT THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS IN WHETHER THE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND VIA CALIFORNIA OR NUDGES MORE NORTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION RECEIVED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
CONSENSUS ON A SOLUTION IN THE COMING FORECASTS.
21
AVIATION
A WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW-END VFR CEILINGS. LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 33
KSEA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WITH LOW-END
VFR CONDITIONS, CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT, THEREAFTER. WINDS S/SW
AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 33
MARINE
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA THIS MORNING WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING UNDER 10 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND AND
WAVES ARE HIGHEST THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS INLAND ON TUESDAY FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A DEEPER 980-990 MB
LOW MOVES IN. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. THE PATTERN
REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL FRONTS CROSSING THE AREA. 33
HYDROLOGY
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS UP TO
AN INCH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
NORTH CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LULL IN RAIN BEFORE
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
15/21
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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