621
FXUS66 KSEW 101636
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
836 AM PST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND BEFORE
TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POISED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES THIS
MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT LIGHT
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT, ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
WITHIN THE PUGET SOUND REGION TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING ALONG THE KING AND
SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND GROUNDS STILL MOISTENED FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN FILLING
IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FORECAST IS STILL SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKING OVER
IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY IS NOT LOOKING PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE, YET THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO BE RESOLVED IN REGARD
TO THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH PARKED OVER THE WEST
COAST BROADLY, BUT THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS IN WHETHER THE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND VIA CALIFORNIA OR NUDGES MORE NORTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION RECEIVED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
CONSENSUS ON A SOLUTION IN THE COMING FORECASTS.
21
AVIATION
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING (AS
OF 16Z THIS MORNING, THE BOUNDARY SITS RIGHT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION). THE LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR FOR
TERMINALS WEST OF PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING. AS IT GOES THROUGH THE
REMAINING INTERIOR TERMINALS, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
LOWER-END MVFR (WITH POSSIBLE POCKETS OF IFR). SOME MIST MAY
ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR MAY NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 21Z-00Z THIS AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY MAY KEEP CEILINGS LOWER IN THE AREA/VICINITY
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY). LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD
LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING (BEST CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE SOUTH INTERIOR/KITSAP AND CASCADES WITH 30-50%
PROBABILITY). REMAINING AREAS HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR IN
THE MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR ARE OUT OF
THE SW 4-8 KT, WITH A PUSH THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
EXPECTED TO TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH AT KPAE AROUND 20Z, AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARRIVING AT KBFI AROUND 23-00Z AT 4-6 KT. THE COAST WILL SEE
NW WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OUT OF THE SOUTH (LESS THAN 5 KT) TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
KSEA...ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING TO LOW-END MVFR
WITH THIS LINE, SO WILL KEEP THAT IN THE TAF, AND WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS TO JUST ABOVE THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF IN THE
EVENING. CONVERGENCE ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL, HOWEVER VARIABLE E/NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
(BUT WILL BE BELOW 5 KT). MVFR IS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS - CURRENTLY IT'S A 25% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS IN THE
MORNING (15% CHANCE OF LIFR), WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY FALLING
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR 21Z TUESDAY.
HPR
MARINE
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING UNDER 10 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND AND WAVES
ARE HIGHEST THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS INLAND ON TUESDAY FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A DEEPER 980-990 MB
LOW MOVES IN. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. THE PATTERN
REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL FRONTS CROSSING THE AREA.
33
HYDROLOGY
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NORTH
CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LULL IN RAIN BEFORE
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
15/21
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
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