746
FXUS66 KSEW 102323
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
323 PM PST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SLATED TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE LATE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH A WETTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER
ACROSS THE REGION BY TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
AND CONDITIONS REMAINING MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS, CAN EXPECT
SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY IN ANY AREAS OF CLEARING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY START TO SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BETWEEN 6000-6500 FEET IN THE WARM SECTOR,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
INTERIOR BY THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TOWARDS 3500-4000
FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWING TROUGHING SITUATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. A WETTER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
LIKELY BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH THE INTERIOR TERMINALS (AS
OF 18Z). LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN THE
SNOHOMISH COUNTY (AS A CONVERGENCE ZONE), AND A LINE OF STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST IN THE SOUTH CHEHALIS VALLEY-RAINER AREA.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BE A TOSS-UP POST-FRONT WITH SCT OR BKN MVFR-
RANGE DECKS. BASED ON THE TRENDS POST-FRONT, WILL TREND CEILINGS
UPWARDS TOWARDS VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR MOST TERMINALS (THAT HAVE NOT RETAINED MVFR CEILINGS FOR A LONG
DURATION). THE CONVERGENCE ZONE/PUSH THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA MAY MAKE WINDS VARIABLE DOWN THROUGH PUGET SOUND FROM 00-06Z
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NW 5-10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH REMAINING AREAS SEEING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL, WITH FLOW ALOFT REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE. THERE
REMAINS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CEILINGS EARLY MORNING LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY AROUND 18-21Z, BEFORE CLEARING OUT TO VFR. BEST
CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR REMAINS THE SOUTH INTERIOR/KITSAP/CASCADES AREA
(30-50% CHANCE), WITH STRONGER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CEILINGS IN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. LIGHT N/NE WINDS 3-5 KT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON.
KSEA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN MVFR RANGE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL LIFT LIKELY ABOVE 3,000 FT AT
OR JUST AFTER 00Z. WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR BY 06Z AND THERE REMAINS
A 25% CHANCE THAT THE CEILINGS MAY BE AS LOW AS IFR BETWEEN 14Z AND
20Z TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR. S WINDS 4-8 KT
MAY BECOME VARIABLE/LIGHT NE AT AROUND 3-6 KT BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS
EVENING (DUE TO A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE/DIFFLUENCE FROM A POST-
FRONTAL PUSH TO THE NORTH), BUT WILL BECOME S AGAIN (LESS THAN 5 KT)
THROUGH ROUGHLY 20Z, BEFORE TURNING TO THE N 3-6 KT.
HPR
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THE WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY THE
CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AREAS OBSERVING BREEZY WEST
WINDS OVER 20 KT (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT). HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS, AND THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. A STRONGER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE GUSTS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 6-8 FT TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 5-6 FT
TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 12
FT THURSDAY, DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 FT FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TO 10 TO 14 FT SUNDAY.
HPR
HYDROLOGY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL BE WETTER, THE SYSTEMS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
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