887
FXUS66 KSEW 110423
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
823 PM PST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SLATED TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE LATE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH A WETTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL PUGET SOUND, ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE. NO MAJOR FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER
ACROSS THE REGION BY TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND
CONDITIONS REMAINING MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS, CAN EXPECT SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN ANY AREAS OF CLEARING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY START TO SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BETWEEN 6000-6500 FEET IN THE WARM SECTOR,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
INTERIOR BY THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TOWARDS 3500-4000 FEET BY EARLY
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING TROUGHING
SITUATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. A WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, LIKELY BRINGING THE
NEXT ROUND OF LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON, WITH MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNING LATE TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LOW TO
MID CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED VFR FOR MOST AREAS AND
MVFR FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PUGET SOUND (MAINLY BETWEEN KSEA
AND PAE). VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS
MAY ALSO LOWER TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY AROUND CENTRAL PUGET SOUND.
DUE TO CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, LOCALIZED FOG MAY DEVELOP
IN ANY AREAS OF CLEARING, LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN VSBYS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CIGS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 18-20Z FOR MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW CIGS MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE KITSAP PENINSULA.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
KSEA...MVFR CIGS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AM. THERE IS ALSO APPROXIMATELY A 30% PROBABILITY OF IFR
CIGS FROM 10-15Z. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS INTO
TUESDAY AM, GENERALLY FROM THE SE. WINDS WILL TRANSITION N/NW
AFTER 18Z. JD
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH ONLY THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AREAS
OBSERVING BREEZY WEST WINDS OVER 20 KT (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT). HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INLAND
ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MEDIUM
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS,
AND THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. A STRONGER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND
WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
GALE GUSTS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 6-8 FT TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 5-6 FT
TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 12
FT THURSDAY, DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 FT FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TO 10 TO 14 FT SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE WETTER, THE SYSTEMS LOOK TO
REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, NO
RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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