716
FXUS66 KSEW 112137
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
137 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH OF A BREAK AS
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON, EXCEPT A FEW LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER WESTERN LEWIS
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES HOVER RIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO GET UP JUST A FEW MORE DEGREES,
INTO THE MID 50S. WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE, AND MID AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM, MODERATING LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE LOW 40S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN AREAS NORTH OF EVERETT, AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. SEATTLE AND SOUTHWARDS
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW LEVELS RISING
ABOVE 6000 FT WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT THE HIGH PEAKS
THROUGH THE NORTH CASCADES. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES WON'T
BE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW
TRACK, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
AS THE MAIN VORT MAX GETS PULLED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. REGARDLESS, TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT--AROUND 0.5-1" THROUGH THE LOWLANDS AND 1-2" IN
THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY
THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, BUT WELL BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TOWARDS THE
REGION, WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. LASTLY, SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 3000-4000 FT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW CURRENTLY FAVORS THE NORTH CASCADES AND THE
HIGHER PASSES (INCLUDING STEVENS PASS), WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT AT SNOQUALMIE PASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THURSDAY, CLOSE TO 60, WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. LUCKILY, THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND PRETTY SHORT-LIVED, SO WHILE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
PRECIPITATION EVERY DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, NO ONE DAY OR
ONE SYSTEM IS PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY. BUT ALL IN
ALL, AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS,
WITH 1-3" POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PACIFIC COAST.
SNOW LEVELS RISE BACK TO AROUND 5000-6000 UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER
40S FOR LOWS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FAVORED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (HIGHS NEAR 50, LOWS IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40).
62
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. CONDITIONS HAVE
MOSTLY REBOUNDED TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, DESPITE SOME LINGERING
FOG SCATTERING OUT ACROSS THE CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE N/NE PERSISTING AT 4-7 KT. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SE OVERNIGHT. MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT,
WITH AN INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09-12Z
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN
LIGHT RAIN.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
PERSISTING BETWEEN 4-7 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT
AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE. THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK
TO MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. A GRADUAL LOWERING OF
THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER INTO THE AREA, THOUGH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ON AND OFF AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
14
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, ALONG WITH A PUSH DOWN
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WHICH HAS A 30% CHANCE OF
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE STRENGTH GUSTS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
COMBINED SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD UP TO 8 TO 9 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY, PUSHING
UPWARD TO 10 TO 12 FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL MAINTAIN
10 TO 12 FEET THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BEFORE A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL BE WETTER, THE SYSTEMS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS
OVER THE WEEKEND, MOST NOTABLY ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
COUNTY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
14
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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