739
FXUS66 KSEW 120411
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
811 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NOT
MUCH OF A BREAK AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH PRIMARILY OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR FORECAST
UPDATES THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN AREAS NORTH OF EVERETT, AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. SEATTLE AND SOUTHWARDS
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW LEVELS RISING
ABOVE 6000 FT WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT THE HIGH PEAKS
THROUGH THE NORTH CASCADES. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES WON'T
BE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW
TRACK, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
AS THE MAIN VORT MAX GETS PULLED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. REGARDLESS, TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT--AROUND 0.5-1" THROUGH THE LOWLANDS AND 1-2" IN
THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY
THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, BUT WELL BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TOWARDS THE
REGION, WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. LASTLY, SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 3000-4000 FT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW CURRENTLY FAVORS THE NORTH CASCADES AND THE
HIGHER PASSES (INCLUDING STEVENS PASS), WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT AT SNOQUALMIE PASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THURSDAY, CLOSE TO 60, WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE AREA. LUCKILY, THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND
PRETTY SHORT-LIVED, SO WHILE WE WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION
EVERY DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, NO ONE DAY OR ONE SYSTEM IS
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS
THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY. BUT ALL IN ALL, AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO
AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS, WITH 1-3" POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PACIFIC COAST. SNOW LEVELS RISE
BACK TO AROUND 5000-6000 UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER
40S FOR LOWS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FAVORED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (HIGHS NEAR 50, LOWS IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40).
62
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
LARGELY SPLIT BETWEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY 4-8 KTS.
HQM THE ONLY EXCEPTION WITH EASTERLY WINDS THERE. A WIDESPREAD
SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SPEEDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT EVEN
AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WILL
CERTAINLY LOWER AS MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INFILTRATE W WA. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS BEGIN TO BE CONSIDERED FOR MOST TERMINALS AFTER 12Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT MERIT TAF INCLUSION UNTIL AFTER 00Z IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN POPS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONVINCING...THUS ONLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. ANTICIPATED RAINFALL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
LIGHT. TO REWIND SLIGHTLY TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LOCATIONS MORE
PRONE TO LOWER CIGS /OLM, PWT/ ARE HINTING AT THE PROSPECT FOR FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THIS
AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR 06Z ISSUANCE.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO
LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
INCOMING SYSTEM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR
LESS. SPEEDS INCREASING TO 4-8 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z, POPS ARE NON-COMMITTAL, SUGGESTING
MORE OF AN ON-AGAIN, OFF-AGAIN PROSPECT FOR LIGHT PRECIP. CHANCES
ONLY LOOKING MORE CONVINCING CLOSER TO 00Z IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
18
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, ALONG WITH A PUSH DOWN
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WHICH HAS A 30% CHANCE OF
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE STRENGTH GUSTS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
COMBINED SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD UP TO 8 TO 9 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY, PUSHING
UPWARD TO 10 TO 12 FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL MAINTAIN
10 TO 12 FEET THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BEFORE A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK.
WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE WETTER, THE SYSTEMS
LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS OVER THE WEEKEND, MOST NOTABLY ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, NO RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
14
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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