941
FXUS66 KSEW 122214
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
214 PM PST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE FORECAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON, WITH ONLY TRACES OF AMOUNTS
BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING, LEAVING THE REST OF THE AREA DRY
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND MOVE INLAND, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURING
THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, HOWEVER, WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY,
PULLING THE LOW CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
EVENING BUT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO MUCH
OF FRIDAY. THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 0.25-0.75" ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS,
WITH 1-3" POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COAST. SNOW LEVELS
CURRENTLY AROUND 8000 FT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000-4500 FT
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE PASSES. BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THUS, THE COOLEST AIR
ALOFT BEING PLACED FARTHER SOUTH, THE RESULTANT SNOW LEVEL
FORECAST HAS INCREASED. THEREFORE, SNOWFALL FORECASTS HAVE ALSO
DECREASED, WITH JUST A FEW INCHES ALONG RAINY/WASHINGTON PASS ON
SR-20 AND NO ACCUMULATIONS IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG STEVENS AND
SNOQUALMIE PASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60, AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S UP TO NEAR 50
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER, IN THE LOW 50S FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH A LARGER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO WHAT IS DETAILED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK ABOVE 6000 FT SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 3000-3500 FT. HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL REALLY
TAPER OFF BY THEN, SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT (AN INCH OR LESS) AT THE PASSES. DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS WEEKEND,
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
62
AVIATION
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME POCKETS OF MVFR ALONG
THE COAST AND ALONG THE STRAIT. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING FRONT SHIFTS INLAND, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MORNING.
KSEA...VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL AT
TIMES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 KT OR LESS AND
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CLOUDS, MVFR CONDITIONS, AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, LIKELY BETWEEN 10-12Z.
14
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND,
ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME FOR MOST AREA WATERS ON
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.
COMBINED SEAS THIS AFTERNOON 8 TO 10 FEET WILL SLOWLY BUILD
UPWARDS TO 11 TO 13 FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL LOWER
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 9 TO 10 FEET
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE WETTER, THE SYSTEMS LOOK
TO REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON AREA RIVERS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE RISE
EXPECTED ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. RIVER FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
14
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND
TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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