777
FXUS66 KSEW 130951
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
151 AM PST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE FORECAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BOTH FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MORNING LOWS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PER THE RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING, RAIN IS CONTINUING TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING AROUND THE REGION, WITH SCATTERED
POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY, WITH MORE OF IT BEING FOCUSED IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL CASCADES BY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL QPF THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS AROUND 0.75-1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE
LOWLANDS, AND 1-3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOTABLY, THE SNOW
LEVELS HAVE RISEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, MAKING A
SCENARIO IN WHICH THE COLDER AIR IS NOT ALIGNING WITH THE PERIOD
OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED. THIS HAS LED TO A REDUCTION
IN THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS NOW
ONLY DIP TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE NORTH CASCADES WHERE JUST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE RAINY PASS AREA, AND WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE BOTH SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASS INTO
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. THE CORE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE A TOUCH LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, WITH AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS, AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED AS THESE DISTURBANCES PASS, WITH
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH CASCADES AND
POTENTIALLY MIXED PRECIPITATION AND STEVENS PASS.
SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
WHILE MOSTLY DRIER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMING DOWN, WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. MORNING LOWS ARE LIKELY
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE NEBULOUS AFTER THIS POINT, WHERE
SOME DIVERGENT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW A SPLIT BETWEEN MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER AND CONDITIONS REMAINING GENERALLY MORE QUIET BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
21
AVIATION
MOIST SW FLOW OVER WESTERN WA TODAY WITH RAIN.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. 33
KSEA...CEILINGS LOWERING THIS MORNING WITH RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. S WINDS AROUND 5 KT. 33
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INLAND TODAY WITH WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS FLIPPING FROM S TO NW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 13 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS IN
THE EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL ALSO SEE A
FLIP FROM S TO NW. A WESTERLY PUSH DOWN THE CENTRAL STRAIT IS
ALSO FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH W WINDS EASING THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING THE PATTERN ACTIVE. 33
HYDROLOGY
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE WETTER, THE SYSTEMS LOOK TO
REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
AREA RIVERS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE RISE EXPECTED ON
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
14
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST
THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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