109
FXUS66 KSEW 132253
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
253 PM PST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS
WILL INCREASE ELEVATED, KEEPING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
CONSIDERABLY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP CONSIDERABLY NEXT WEEK
TOO.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A COUPLE OF LOWS REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION OVER A SPLIT-
FLOW TROUGH OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY LOW
(DRIVING THE WEATHER IN WESTERN WA) IS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SPANNING THE AREA. A STRONGER LOW TO THE
SOUTH IS FILLING (WEAKENING) AS IT MOVES ONSHORE.
THE RADAR REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH SEVERAL SHOWER
BANDS CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN TOWARDS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY ENDING TO THE NORTH/CASCADES LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE SUPPORT FOR THESE
RAIN SHOWERS, RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED MORE
THAN 0.25"/HR WITH THESE SHOWER BANDS (HEAVIEST RATES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES AND OLYMPIC REGION DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS
ARE UP TO 9,000 FT, AND WILL DECREASE DOWN TO AROUND 4,000-5,000
FT IN THE CASCADES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOWEVER IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. THE PASSES
MAY SEE A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT (WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES) -
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STICK TO THE GROUND.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS CONCENTRATED AGAIN IN THE
CASCADES, OLYMPICS, AND THE COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO ABOVE 7,000 FT, SO THE SAME STORY
APPLIES AS BEFORE (SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ONLY FOR THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS).
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THE INTERIOR WILL
MOST LIKELY SEE 0.50" TOWARDS THE SOUTH, TO AROUND AN INCH FROM
PUGET SOUND THROUGH THE NORTH LOWLANDS. THE COAST WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH TO 1.50". THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS WILL LIKELY SEE 1-3" OF WATER-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION
(WITH SOME CHANCES THAT HEAVIER RAIN BANDS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER SOME OF THE CASCADE MOUNTAIN TOPS).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR/COAST, AND LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH.
HPR
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ZONE OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY, WITH A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NON- ZERO, THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY (REMAINING LOWLAND AREAS APPEAR
MORE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS). THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MONDAY INTO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES HINT AT A POSSIBLE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE OTHER PART OF THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS
COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH TUESDAY ONWARDS SEEING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S, AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SKY COVERAGE IS
GENERALLY OVERCAST INTO THIS EXTENDED PERIOD (AS THE SHORT-
TERM).
HPR
AVIATION
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS A BAND
OF RAIN CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT ARE A MIXED BAG OF MOSTLY
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TOWARDS MVFR
LATER TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN A MIXED
BAG OF IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
KSEA...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY A MIX OF IFR TO LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT, THOUGH WITH RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN 5-10 KT.
14
MARINE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TODAY SHIFTING INLAND WITH
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLIES OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE OVER MOST INTERIOR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO DECREASED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY FOR ELEVATED
SEAS BUILDING AROUND 9 TO 12 FEET, BUT ADDITIONALLY, COULD SEE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES AS WELL (MAINLY IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATER ZONES). INCREASING WESTERLIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
THE CENTRAL ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
LATER THIS EVENING.
AN ADDITIONAL FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR
INCREASING SOUTHERLIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN ANY THRESHOLDS AT THE MOMENT. WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE
MARINE PATTERN ACTIVE.
COMBINED SEAS 9 TO 12 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FEET. SEAS WILL HOVER
AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
2-3 INCHES AND SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN 5500-7500
FEET, EXPECT RISES ON AREA RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
MOST NOTABLE RISES WILL BE ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
COUNTY - WHERE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
14
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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