092
FXUS66 KSEW 141042
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
242 AM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY WILL BRING RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA. STEADIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE OLYMPIA
PENINSULA AND KING COUNTY NORTHWARDS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARDS INTO LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY, MAINLY FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY
SOUTHWARDS. BOTH HREF/REFS MAINTAIN PROBABILITIES OF 50-80% FOR
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EVERETT
AREA SOUTHWARDS. PROBABILITIES DROP TOWARDS LESS THAN 10% FOR
GUSTS OF 40 MPH FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH BOTH HREF/REFS DO
HIGHLIGHT THE EVERETT (PAE) AREA FOR PROBABILITIES NEAR 50%. ALL
IN ALL, INCREASED WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO RANGE BETWEEN 5500 TO
6500 FEET TODAY, RESULTING IN HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE
CASCADES, ESPECIALLY KING COUNTY NORTHWARDS IN THE LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST QPF. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE BC BORDER.
STEADIER RAINFALL BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THERE IS
ANOTHER UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE SUNDAY, AND
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF
WASHINGTON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO HOW LONG THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LASTS INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, HAVE KEPT
WITH NBM PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION RANGING 20 TO 40%.
ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY,
BUT ONCE AGAIN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN ENSEMBLES IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH BY LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
DO LOOK TO COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. JD
AVIATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY TODAY
BEFORE MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION BECOMING MORE ZONAL. LATEST RADAR OBS
SHOW SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE RANGING BETWEEN VFR TO MVFR/LIFR AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE VARYING SIGNIFICANTLY. LOWERED
CEILINGS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL STARTING TO DEVELOP AT THIS
HOUR, CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10-15 KT AND
GUSTING TO 25-35 KT BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
KSEA...CONDITIONS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN VFR/MVFR SO FAR THIS
MORNING, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT LOWER CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 10-12 KT, GUSTING TO 20-30 KT. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 30 KT ARE AROUND 60-80%. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MCMILLIAN
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY FOR ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET. THE SCA
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. A FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS AREA WATERS WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITIES OF WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KT RANGE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 60-80% ACROSS PUGET
SOUND WITH THE THREAT ONLY REMAINING THERE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS MARINE ZONE TODAY. WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE MARINE PATTERN
ACTIVE.
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET TODAY. SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 6 TO 8
FEET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
MCMILLIAN
HYDROLOGY
A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AMOUNTS HIGHEST OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA, AS WELL AS THE CASCADES OF NORTHERN KING COUNTY
THROUGH SKAGIT COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
FOR THESE AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY. RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS
TIME, RIVER FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
MASON COUNTY. HOWEVER, OTHER RIVERS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES OF KING, SNOHOMISH, AND
SKAGIT COUNTIES. JD
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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