283
FXUS66 KSEW 141734
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
934 AM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY WILL BRING RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN WA THIS MORNING. RATES REMAIN BELOW 0.20-0.25 INCHES AN
HOUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY (HIGHEST RATES WILL BE UP IN THE
CASCADES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY). OTHER THAN NUISANCE PONDING ON
ROADWAYS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS, IMPACTS REMAIN PRETTY MINIMAL
(DUE TO THE LOWER RAIN RATES). UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE
AVIATION, MARINE, AND HYDROLOGY SECTIONS OF THE AFD THIS
MORNING.
HPR
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
AREA. STEADIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE OLYMPIA PENINSULA AND KING COUNTY
NORTHWARDS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARDS INTO LATE
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY, MAINLY FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY SOUTHWARDS. BOTH HREF/REFS
MAINTAIN PROBABILITIES OF 50-80% FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EVERETT AREA SOUTHWARDS.
PROBABILITIES DROP TOWARDS LESS THAN 10% FOR GUSTS OF 40 MPH FOR
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH BOTH HREF/REFS DO HIGHLIGHT THE EVERETT
(PAE) AREA FOR PROBABILITIES NEAR 50%. ALL IN ALL, INCREASED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO RANGE BETWEEN 5500 TO 6500 FEET TODAY,
RESULTING IN HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
KING COUNTY NORTHWARDS IN THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST QPF. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
NEAR THE BC BORDER.
STEADIER RAINFALL BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THERE IS
ANOTHER UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE
SUNDAY, AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM
OFFSHORE OF WASHINGTON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO
HOW LONG THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LASTS INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME,
HAVE KEPT WITH NBM PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION RANGING 20
TO 40%. ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY, BUT ONCE AGAIN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
ENSEMBLES IN THE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEK. JD
AVIATION
WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER
THE AREA TODAY. FRONT SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 00Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS NORTH OF THE
FRONT NEAR KBLI WHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER RAIN COMES TO AN END BUT MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUING OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A RETURN
YO IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES 18Z/21Z. VISIBILITY 1-3SM IN MODERATE
RAIN UNTIL 21Z.VISIBILITY IMPROVING AFTER 21Z. FELTON
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS AREA WATERS WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITIES
OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KT RANGE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 60-80%
ACROSS PUGET SOUND WITH THE THREAT ONLY REMAINING THERE. WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH THE AREA WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
SEAS AROUND 10 FEET SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAINING IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND. FELTON
HYDROLOGY
A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS. AMOUNTS OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA LOOK TO BE A LITTLE
LESS NOW AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND IS STAYING AND IS FORECAST TO
STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH - WITH ABOUT 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED IN THAT
PERIOD. FOR THE CASCADES OF NORTHERN KING COUNTY THROUGH SKAGIT
COUNTY, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES FOR THE
SAME PERIOD. RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME, RIVER FLOODING LOOKS LESS LIKELY BUT
REMAINS POSSIBLE ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. OTHER
RIVERS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES OF
KING, SNOHOMISH, AND SKAGIT COUNTIES BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
JBB/JD
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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