609
FXUS66 KSEW 150417
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
817 PM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRAPED STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WRAPPING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED GOING INTO TONIGHT FOR
MOST OF PUGET SOUND AND SOME COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MODERATE
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PUGET SOUND INTO THE NORTH INTERIOR/CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN RATES OF 0.01-0.10"/HR ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY GOING INTO SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES
AND OLYMPICS/COAST, WITH AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE
NEAR THE RAIN TOTALS PICKED UP SO FAR FOR FRIDAY. A FEW
LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE ACCUMULATION OF STEADY RAIN MAY BE
LINGERING (SUCH AS RISES IN STREAMS, SOME PONDING OF ROADWAYS,
UNSTABLE SOILS, ETC.). ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON RIVERS CAN BE FOUND
IN THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL REMAIN AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 7,000 FT).
IN ADDITION TO RAIN, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE PRIMARY
WINDY SPOTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PUGET SOUND, AND ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST, WITH MOST LIKELY AN AREA FROM EVERETT DOWN TO
DUPONT SEEING GUSTS PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT AT AROUND 30 MPH. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE THE GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE
CASCADES AND SOUTH INTERIOR WILL SEE BREEZY WINDS NOW THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AS WINDS ELSEWHERE ALSO DECREASE AROUND
THE SAME TIME).
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERCAST WITH
SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET ZONES OUT. AGAIN RAIN RATES REMAIN EXTREMELY LIGHT
WITH RATES NOT EXCEEDING A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ANOTHER
FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REGIONWIDE. THE RATES AGAIN REMAIN
LIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES COULD SEE THEM APPROACH
0.05-0.10"/HR WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCING.
WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH (5-10 MPH OR SO). HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS/COAST TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN IN THE MID 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
HPR
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS. COOL AIR IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE TROUGH/FRONT MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 3,500 FT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
MONDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY REMAIN LOW (20-30%).
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM
ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY POST-FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ONLY THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S, AND SOME
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 30S.
HPR
AVIATION
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM DISSIPATING OVER AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING ONSHORE SATURDAY. LIGHT PRECIP/MIST HAS KEPT LOWERED
CEILINGS AND HINDERED VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING INTO IFR/LIFR.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
NOT EXPECTING TO IMPROVE TO VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
05Z-06Z TO 8-15 KT, GUSTING TO 15-25 KT FOR PUGET SOUND TERMINALS
AND HQM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR OTHER
TERMINALS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BETWEEN 2-5 KT.
KSEA...LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH MAY SEE CONDITIONS BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH
AT TIMES. GUIDANCE HINTS AT SLOW IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY ONLY IMPROVING TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12
KT AND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SATURDAY MORNING TO 4-6 KT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING. FELTON/29
MARINE
SYSTEM DISSIPATING OVER THE INLAND WATERS TONIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET INTO NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. FELTON
HYDROLOGY
THE LATEST RAIN STORM IS STARTING TO LEAVE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER LAYING DOWN SINCE MIDNIGHT AND ADDITIONAL 1+ INCHES OF RAIN IN
MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER
STORM PULSE IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS AND 1/2 TO 11/2
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MANY RIVERS HAVE CRESTED FOR THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL RISES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
POSSIBLE FLOODING BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME -
INCLUDING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. A DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED STARTING
SUNDAY.
JBB
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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