788
FXUS66 KSEW 151020
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
220 AM PST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FRONT DRAPED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STEADY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CASCADES. THERE REMAINS SOME RAIN
SHADOWING OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY, ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY BECOME LIGHTER BY THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES OFFSHORE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DUE TO ABUNDANT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AT THE SURFACE, AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS, ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN THEN RETURNS
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE INTERIOR. THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS RATHER ELONGATED ON
SUNDAY, AND MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHWARDS INTO CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY, BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET ON SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
4000 FEET BY LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, MINOR QPF AMOUNTS WILL LEAD
TO ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY FALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW
50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO TUESDAY WITH
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE CASCADES. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF BRIEF DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OFFSHORE. ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A MAJORITY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEADING TO MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH
AGAIN, WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE OF OREGON AND CALIFORNIA
BY LATE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. JD
AVIATION
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN AND MIST CONTINUE TO HINDER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH MVFR TO LIFR CRITERIA.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON, IF MUCH AT
ALL AS WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD VFR. MVFR TO LIFR WILL
AGAIN RESETTLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT FOR PUGET SOUND TERMINALS AND KHQM. GUSTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 17-18Z. WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 4 TO 8 KT FOR MOST REMAINING TERMINALS, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.
KSEA...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS MORNING.
NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH MOSTLY MVFR REMAINING
INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 17-18Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY, MAINLY 4-8 KT THEN BECOMING
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MCMILLIAN
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AREA WATERS TODAY. A
SUB 995 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HERE WE COULD SEE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SCA WINDS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET INTO NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
MCMILLIAN
HYDROLOGY
STEADY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER THE CASCADES
AND WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS HAVE BEEN
FOCUSED OVER THE KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTY CASCADES WHERE 1-2
INCHES HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THIS CONTINUES TO LEAD TO RISES ON THE
RIVERS IN THIS REGION, PARTICULARLY THE TOLT RIVER. RAINFALL
INTENSITIES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON. RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO RISE IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS MORNING, BUT ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, RIVERS WILL CONTINUED TO
BE MONITORED.
ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DRIER WEATHER
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK. JD
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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