042
FXUS66 KSEW 151720
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FRONT DRAPED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE (THIS UPDATE INCLUDES REFRESHED AVIATION, AND HYDROLOGY
SECTIONS). HPR
STEADY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE CASCADES. THERE
REMAINS SOME RAIN SHADOWING OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY BECOME
LIGHTER BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TODAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES OFFSHORE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DUE TO ABUNDANT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AT THE SURFACE, AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS, ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN THEN RETURNS
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE INTERIOR. THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS RATHER ELONGATED ON
SUNDAY, AND MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHWARDS INTO CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY, BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET ON SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
4000 FEET BY LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, MINOR QPF AMOUNTS WILL LEAD
TO ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY FALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW
50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO TUESDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE CASCADES. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL
THEN BUILD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOR A PERIOD OF BRIEF DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OFFSHORE.
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN INCREASED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEADING TO MORE
OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH AGAIN, WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
OF OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BY LATE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. JD
AVIATION
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDE VARIETY OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT
BEST ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WEST OF PUGET SOUND
AND OVER THE NORTH PUGET SOUND. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN MVFR BY 00Z. NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS EVENING
BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS BY
12Z SUNDAY.
KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTH WIND 4 TO 8 KNOTS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z. FELTON
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AREA WATERS TODAY. A
SUB 995 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HERE WE COULD SEE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SCA WINDS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET INTO NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
MCMILLIAN
HYDROLOGY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES HAS COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING. THE TOLT AND UPPER REACHES OF THE SKYKOMISH HAVE
CRESTED. THE SNOQUALMIE WILL CREST LATER TODAY. NO FLOODING
FORECAST. THE SNOQUALMIE AT CARNATION COULD CREST ABOUT A FOOT
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DRIER WEATHER
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK. FELTON/JD
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page