694
FXUS66 KSEW 241827
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1027 AM PST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH WEAKENING, IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS ARE STILL
FORECAST, BUT WILL BE FIRMLY WITHIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
RATHER THAN THAT OF HIGH WIND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE ONLY CHANGE MADE THIS MORNING WAS TO REDUCE THE HEADLINES
FOR THE WIND DOWN FROM HIGH WIND TO JUST WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH
THE I-5/PUGET SOUND CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE REDUCED THE MAXIMUM GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER GUSTS
ARE THE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINES OF PUGET
SOUND. THE TIMING ON THIS EVENT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH, WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND NOON AND LAST THROUGH
7PM. WET, SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAIN AND FLOODING DOES
HAVE AN IMPACT ON TREES WHICH MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND
DAMAGE SO EXERCISE CAUTION.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH SNOW
LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 6000-6500 FT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
LOWLANDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-0.35 INCHES, FOR THE COAST VALUES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.45-0.75 INCHES, AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
29/21
CEILINGS ARE VARYING FROM TERMINAL TO TERMINAL AS A MIX OF VFR ALL
THE WAY TO IFR ARE BEING OBSERVED. IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR/MVFR
SHOULD BE MET AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
(IFR) DEVELOPING TONIGHT FOR AREAS SUCH AS KOLM. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DECREASED DRASTICALLY IN THE LATEST UPDATE BUT GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-
35 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KSEA...VARYING CIGS SO FAR THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR IN
MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS. A TREND TO MOSTLY VFR SHOULD BE MET AFTER
21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TREND LASTING INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE AROUND 21Z TO AROUND 30-35 KT, LESS THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT STILL BREEZY. WINDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
MCMILLIAN
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
SETTLE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON, WHICH WOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO HINT AT AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
POTENTIALLY HEADING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE PATH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO
STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THIS
TIME.
29
AVIATION
CEILINGS ARE VARYING FROM TERMINAL TO TERMINAL AS A MIX OF VFR ALL
THE WAY TO IFR ARE BEING OBSERVED. IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR/MVFR
SHOULD BE MET AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
(IFR) DEVELOPING TONIGHT FOR AREAS SUCH AS KOLM. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DECREASED DRASTICALLY IN THE LATEST UPDATE BUT GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-
35 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KSEA...VARYING CIGS SO FAR THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR IN
MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS. A TREND TO MOSTLY VFR SHOULD BE MET AFTER
21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TREND LASTING INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE AROUND 21Z TO AROUND 30-35 KT, LESS THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT STILL BREEZY. WINDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
MCMILLIAN
MARINE
A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IN TRACKS INTO
BC THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WIND FORECAST HAVE DECREASED DRASTICALLY,
ALLOWING FOR GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST STRAIT TO BE
DOWNGRADED TO SCAS. HOWEVER, GALES THROUGH THE INLAND WATERS REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN
STRONGEST. MOVING ONWARD, A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND FOR
A QUIETER PERIOD. WINDS EASING OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WITH THE LIGHTER
WINDS COMES A THREAT OF THICK FOG.
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FEET FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING FOR THE
WEEKEND. FELTON/MCMILLIAN
HYDROLOGY
RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD. RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY
ADDITIONAL RISES TO AREA RIVERS. WITH THE LOWER RAIN RATES AND A
POSSIBLE DRY SPELL COMING UP THE THREAT OF LANDSLIDES HAS
DECREASED ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CITY OF
SEATTLE-DOWNTOWN EVERETT / MARYSVILLE AREA-ISLAND COUNTY-
LOWLANDS OF PIERCE AND SOUTHERN KING COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF
WESTERN SKAGIT AND NORTHWESTERN SNOHOMISH COUNTIES-
LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SAN JUAN COUNTY-
SHORELINE / LYNNWOOD / SOUTH EVERETT AREA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CITY OF SEATTLE-
DOWNTOWN EVERETT / MARYSVILLE AREA-EASTERN KITSAP COUNTY-
EASTSIDE-ISLAND COUNTY-LOWLANDS OF LEWIS AND SOUTHERN
THURSTON COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF PIERCE AND SOUTHERN KING
COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF WESTERN SKAGIT AND NORTHWESTERN
SNOHOMISH COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-
NORTHERN HOOD CANAL-OLYMPIA AND SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND-PORT
TOWNSEND AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-SHORELINE / LYNNWOOD /
SOUTH EVERETT AREA-SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL-WILLAPA AND BLACK
HILLS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR FOOTHILLS AND
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL KING COUNTY-FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF
PIERCE AND SOUTHERN KING COUNTIES-FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS
OF SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN KING COUNTIES-FOOTHILLS AND
VALLEYS OF THURSTON AND LEWIS COUNTIES-FOOTHILLS AND
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
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