043
FXUS66 KSEW 242256
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
256 PM PST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND, AND HAS WEAKENED TO A POINT WHERE IT WILL NOT
CAUSE HEADLINE WORTHY WIND SPEEDS. POCKETS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH LIGHT RAIN AGAIN
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, ALL OF THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE
CANCELLED DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND MOVING
OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. WHILE IT IS NOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND, THE SYSTEM DE-COUPLED FROM ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MOVED NORTH FASTER THAN THE MODELS COULD LATCH ON
TO. SOME BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL
SATURATION AND WEAKENED STATE OF THE TREES, NOT HAVING HIGH
WINDS MATERIALIZE IS THE MOST FAVORABLE SCENARIO.
TOMORROW, EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT RAIN, THOUGH
NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS EXPECTED OF IT. ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S, APPROACHING FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE, MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE OF CONCERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED INTO NEXT WEEK TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
INDICATION THAT THE PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE, BUT FOR NOW,
IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE MILD END TO 2025.
21
AVIATION
S TO SSW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MEANDERS OFFSHORE. A MIX OF VFR TO IFR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE TREND LASTING INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO PEAK AT
THIS HOUR WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT RECORDING OVER THE PUGET SOUND
TERMINALS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT,
WITH TERMINALS SUCH AS KOLM & KPWT SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS EMANATING AS A RESULT BY 06-08Z. AN ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERED CEILINGS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KSEA...CEILINGS CONTINUE TO VARY THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN VFR/MVFR.
THIS TRENDS LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY VFR
BECOMES MORE COMMON TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS MAY ALLOW
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA BUT LATEST HI-RES HAS A
LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1SM FOR KSEA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES.
MCMILLIAN
MARINE
A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW HAS PUSHED WELL INTO BC THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST WIND FORECAST HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE DRASTICALLY,
ALLOWING FOR GALES OVER INTERIOR WATERS TO BE DOWNGRADED TO SCAS
ALONG WITH THE COASTAL WATERS. SCAS OVER THE INLAND WATERS SHOULD BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. MOVING ONWARD, A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND FOR A QUIETER PERIOD. WINDS EASING OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS COMES A THREAT OF THICK FOG.
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FEET FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING FOR THE
WEEKEND. MCMILLIAN
HYDROLOGY
RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD. RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY
ADDITIONAL RISES TO AREA RIVERS. WITH THE LOWER RAIN RATES AND A
POSSIBLE DRY SPELL COMING UP THE THREAT OF LANDSLIDES HAS
DECREASED ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF CENTRAL KING COUNTY-FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS OF PIERCE AND SOUTHERN KING COUNTIES-
FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN KING
COUNTIES-FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF THURSTON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES-FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF THE NORTH CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-
PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
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