849
FXUS66 KSEW 241106
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
306 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE THROUGH TOMORROW WEAKENING SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE REACHING THE AREA
MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A SPLITTING SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE
CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE. OUTSIDE OF
SOME STRATUS COMING DOWN THE STRAIT OF GEORGIA INTO THE SAN JUAN
ISLANDS SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3
AM/11Z WERE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OFFSHORE TODAY GIVING
WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNNY SKIES. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHAT
LITTLE DOES FORM WILL BE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR PORTIONS OF THE PUGET SOUND
AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OFFSHORE TONIGHT KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. RIDGE STARTING TO
WEAKEN SUNDAY ALLOWING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR COULD GET INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AREA. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCE OF RAIN WEST OF PUGET SOUND MONDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE WARMER LOWS MONDAY MORNING, IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDING AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE. WITH THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ALLOW WEATHER
SYSTEMS TO REACH THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SPLITTING AND MOVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE SO WILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
START TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
INDICATING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE RIVER
FOLLOWED BY A FRONT LATE FRIDAY. THE ECMWF DOESN'T HAVE THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SOLUTION BUT DOES HAVE A FRONT FRIDAY. GFS
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE OPERATIONAL RUN AS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND
ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT VERSUS THE
OPERATIONAL RUN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE A MAJORITY OF THE
SOLUTIONS WET ON FRIDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE RUNS OF
THE CONSOLIDATED FLOW ALOFT OFFSHORE BEFORE INCREASING THE POPS
ABOVE CHANCE IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE IN THE 4000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE WHEN THE POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SO AT LEAST STARTING OFF THIS WETTER
PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE GOOD SNOW PRODUCTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY MORNING THE LAST MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS GETTING BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THE REST OF THE WAY. HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50
THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRIDAY. FELTON
AVIATION
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFFSHORE IS MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES, WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
LIFR IN PATCHY FOG NEAR KAWO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE (20-25%) OF
IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN LOW STRATUS GENERALLY ALONG THE
PUGET SOUND AND SOUTHWARD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING,
BECOMING LIGHT N/NE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY MOSTLY AT 8 KT OR
LESS.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A
SCT TO BKN IFR OR LOWER CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THIS MORNING. WINDS N/NE AROUND 4-8 KT CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY.
15
MARINE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CALM WINDS. THE NEXT PERIOD
OF IMPACTFUL MARINE WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY, AS
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND BRINGS BACK
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS MID-WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHERLIES ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING TO THE 8-12 FT
RANGE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.
15
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CITY OF
SEATTLE-DOWNTOWN EVERETT / MARYSVILLE AREA-EASTERN KITSAP
COUNTY-EASTSIDE-LOWLANDS OF PIERCE AND SOUTHERN KING
COUNTIES-SHORELINE / LYNNWOOD / SOUTH EVERETT AREA.
PZ...NONE.
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