936
FXUS66 KSEW 241709
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
909 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE THROUGH TOMORROW
WEAKENING SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
REACHING THE AREA MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SPLITTING SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE. OUTSIDE OF SOME STRATUS COMING DOWN
THE STRAIT OF GEORGIA INTO THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS SKIES ARE CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM/11Z WERE IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OFFSHORE TODAY GIVING
WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNNY SKIES. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHAT
LITTLE DOES FORM WILL BE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR PORTIONS OF THE PUGET
SOUND AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OFFSHORE TONIGHT KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. RIDGE STARTING TO
WEAKEN SUNDAY ALLOWING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR COULD GET INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AREA. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCE OF RAIN WEST OF PUGET SOUND MONDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE WARMER LOWS MONDAY MORNING, IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXTENDED MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING AND MOVING
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR TO ALLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS TO REACH THE AREA. THE
FIRST ONE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE SPLITTING AND
MOVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE SO WILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE RIVER FOLLOWED BY A FRONT LATE FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF DOESN'T HAVE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SOLUTION BUT DOES HAVE
A FRONT FRIDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE OPERATIONAL RUN AS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER AND ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT
VERSUS THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE A MAJORITY
OF THE SOLUTIONS WET ON FRIDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE
RUNS OF THE CONSOLIDATED FLOW ALOFT OFFSHORE BEFORE INCREASING
THE POPS ABOVE CHANCE IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 4000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE WHEN THE
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SO AT LEAST STARTING OFF THIS
WETTER PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE GOOD SNOW PRODUCTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY MORNING THE LAST MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS GETTING BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THE REST OF THE WAY. HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50
THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRIDAY. FELTON
AVIATION
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFFSHORE IS MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SMALL AREA OF LIFR STRATUS IS SITTING RIGHT OVER OLM,
THOUGH THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND CLEAR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 30-50%
PROBABILITY OF SEEING LOW STRATUS AND FOG, MAINLY AROUND THE
SOUTH SOUND AND KITSAP PENINSULA. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER FOR
THE SEATTLE METRO. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
THIS MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT N/NE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
MOSTLY AT 8 KT OR LESS.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS N/NE AROUND 4-8 KT
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS A 20-25% OF IFR
STRATUS BETWEEN AROUND 15-19Z SUNDAY, BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED EXPANSE
TODAY, THIS WILL REMAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO.
15/62
MARINE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CALM WINDS.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL MARINE WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK TO
ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST AND BRINGS BACK INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MID-WEEK,
BRINGING A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHERLIES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING TO THE 8-12 FT
RANGE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.
15
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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