189
FXUS66 KSEW 251010
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
210 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WEAKENING TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS
MONDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. RIDGE
REBUILDING MONDAY NIGHT, MOVING INLAND TUESDAY. SPLITTING
SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTH SOUND AND
NORTHERN SAN JUANS OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. COOL
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM/10Z WITH ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS IN THE 20S.
SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS MORNING THE COLDEST MORNINGS SINCE
THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY 2025. SEATTLE HAD A LOW OF 20 ON FEBRUARY
13TH, 2025.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE TODAY GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY. THE PATCHY FOG IS SHALLOW AND WILL DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING TONIGHT. WEAKENING SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH THE SKIES
CLEAR INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER MAKES IT HARDER FOR THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP. LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50. FELTON
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. SPLITTING
SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE PACIFIC BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARRIVING EACH DAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TWO WEEKS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES PRETTY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN DRY AND WET
SOLUTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR THOSE TIMES. THE ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING WETTER SO WON'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FUTURE FORECASTS. STILL SOME LOWS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS NEAR
50 THROUGH THURSDAY THEN LOWER TO MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SNOW LEVELS STARTING OUT NEAR 4000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING THE SNOW
LEVELS TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FELTON
AVIATION
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH AREAS OF LIFR
IN FREEZING FOG SOUTH OF THE PUGET SOUND, INCLUDING NEAR OLM.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH SOUND NEAR OLM
(25-35% PROB) AND CLM. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER FOR THE METRO
AREA (15-20%) AND GIVEN THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS, FOG
REMAINS UNLIKELY THERE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE, BUT MOST
INTERIOR TERMINALS HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND WILL REMAIN
LIKE SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THOUGH
MOSTLY N/NE WINDS. THERE'S A 15-20% OF LOW STRATUS, BUT THIS REMAINS
A LOW- PROBABILITY SCENARIO.
62/15
MARINE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CALM WINDS. THE NEXT PERIOD
OF IMPACTFUL MARINE WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND
BRINGS BACK INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MID-WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
SOUTHERLIES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING TO THE 10-15
FT RANGE TUESDAY, GETTING AS HIGH AS 18-20 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, AND
REMAINING ELEVATED AT 9-13 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
AS SYSTEMS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. LARGER SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TO PRODUCE
LARGE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
15/62
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CITY OF
SEATTLE-DOWNTOWN EVERETT / MARYSVILLE AREA-EASTERN KITSAP
COUNTY-EASTSIDE-LOWLANDS OF LEWIS AND SOUTHERN THURSTON
COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF PIERCE AND SOUTHERN KING COUNTIES-
OLYMPIA AND SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND-SHORELINE / LYNNWOOD /
SOUTH EVERETT AREA.
PZ...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page