610
FXUS66 KSEW 251706
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
906 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
RIDGE. RIDGE REBUILDING MONDAY NIGHT, MOVING INLAND TUESDAY.
SPLITTING SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S. NO PLANNED UPDATES
THIS MORNING. 33
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG OVER THE
SOUTH SOUND AND NORTHERN SAN JUANS OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. COOL TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM/10Z WITH ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS IN THE 20S. SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS MORNING THE
COLDEST MORNINGS SINCE THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY 2025. SEATTLE HAD
A LOW OF 20 ON FEBRUARY 13, 2025.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE TODAY GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY. THE PATCHY FOG IS SHALLOW AND WILL DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING TONIGHT. WEAKENING SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH THE SKIES
CLEAR INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER MAKES IT HARDER FOR THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP. LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50. FELTON
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXTENDED MODELS
SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. SPLITTING SYSTEM MOVING
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARRIVING EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN TWO WEEKS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES
PRETTY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN DRY AND WET SOLUTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE TIMES. THE
ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING WETTER SO WON'T BE SURPRISED IF THE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. STILL SOME LOWS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS NEAR 50 THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN LOWER TO MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS
STARTING OUT NEAR 4000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING THE SNOW LEVELS TO 5000 TO
6000 FEET THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FELTON
AVIATION
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH AREAS OF LIFR IN FREEZING FOG SOUTH OF
THE PUGET SOUND, INCLUDING NEAR OLM. MVFR STRATUS ALSO IS
HANGING AROUND CLM.
FOG AND STRATUS WILL SLOWLY BURN AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MAKE FZFG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MORE DIFFICULT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE ONLY OLYMPIA SEEING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING FOG.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE, WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
N/NE WINDS THROUGH THE INTERIOR.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THOUGH MOSTLY N/NE
WINDS.
62/15
MARINE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CALM WINDS.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL MARINE WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK TO
ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND BRINGS BACK INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MID-
WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHERLIES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING TO THE 10-15
FT RANGE TUESDAY, GETTING AS HIGH AS 18-20 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, AND
REMAINING ELEVATED AT 9-13 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
AS SYSTEMS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. LARGER SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TO PRODUCE
LARGE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
15/62
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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