624
FXUS66 KSEW 261102
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
302 AM PST MON JAN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE
REBUILDS TONIGHT AND MOVES INLAND. THE RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISSIPATING SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. JUST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THIS FEATURE. ASOS SITES STILL REPORTING CLEAR SO CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 12,000 FEET. THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE FOG COVERAGE
WITH JUST PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND. TEMPERATURES
AT 3 AM/11Z WERE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
DISSIPATING FRONT FALLING APART OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE REBUILDING THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
INLAND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER THINNING A LITTLE ALLOWING SOME
PLACES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD MORE MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA MAKING FOR ANOTHER PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FRONT EAST OF 130W BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BUT RAIN STILL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 50.
FRONT SPLITTING AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO PREVENT A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN
WILL HOLD OFF IN THE SEATTLE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER
DRY DAY TUESDAY WILL TIE THE RECORD LONG JANUARY DRY STREAK IN
SEATTLE AT 15 DAYS. CHANCES OF BREAKING THE RECORD NOT VERY GOOD
AT ALL AS THE FLOW ALOFT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REACHING THE COAST MIDDAY
WITH THE RAIN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS UP
AROUND 5000 FEET BUT EASTERLY GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
COULD TRAP SOME COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER PASSES ( STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE ) BRINGING UP THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE PASSES WEDNESDAY. CLOUDY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR THE WARMEST MORNING IN AWHILE WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR 50.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE RECORD JANUARY DRY STREAK FOR SEATTLE IS
15 DAYS ( JANUARY 16-30, 1963 ). THIS STREAK HAS 4 DAYS WITH A
TRACE INCLUDING 3 DAYS WITH SNOW FLURRIES. THE CURRENT 13 DAY
DRY STREAK WITH ZERO PRECIPITATION, NOT EVEN A TRACE, IS THE
LONGEST ONE ON RECORD IN SEATTLE. THERE HAVE BEEN TWO 12 DAY
STREAKS WITH ZERO PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY IN SEATTLE, JANUARY
11-22, 2013 AND JANUARY 19-30, 1945. FELTON
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO TREND WETTER IN THE EXTENDED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. BACK TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED
PROGRAMMING FOR LATE JANUARY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY A FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. LARGE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING BETWEEN 140W AND 150W FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL STALL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND PUMP UP A TEMPORARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE
DOES NOT LAST LONG WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING BETWEEN 5000 AND
6000 FEET FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. FELTON
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLLOWS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES INLAND. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
IN OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AS SUCH, MOST TERMINALS REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KOLM IN FOG. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A MORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR EXPECTED AT KOLM IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TERMINALS AT 6 KT OR LESS. TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST (KHQM)
WILL BE BREEZIER, WITH WINDS GENERALLY PERSISTING BETWEEN 5-10
KT.
KSEA...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 6 KT OR LESS.
14
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS
A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED
TO REACH SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN
MORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS TO GALE LIKELY FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
WATERS. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 40-60
PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE GUSTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN THEN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS AND LIKELY
BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEADLINES AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 3-6 FT TODAY, BEFORE BUILDING TO
11-15 FT ON TUESDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS 18-20
FT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARDS 10-15 FT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT GENERALLY WITHIN THE 10-15 FT
RANGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
14
HYDROLOGY
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INCREASING OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF MODEL RUNS WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO NEAR 6000 FEET IN THE
OLYMPICS BY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 3
TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH A FEW 6 INCH BULLSEYES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN
WILL PUSH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY NEAR FLOOD STAGE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO RIVER FLOODING ON THE REMAINDER OF THE
RIVERS IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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