217
FXUS66 KSEW 261648
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
848 AM PST MON JAN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFFSHORE REBUILDS TONIGHT AND MOVES INLAND. THE RIDGE WILL BE
EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NO MAJOR FORECAST
UPDATES THIS MORNING, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISSIPATING SYSTEM MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. JUST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. ASOS SITES STILL REPORTING CLEAR SO
CLOUDS ARE ABOVE 12,000 FEET. THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE
FOG COVERAGE WITH JUST PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER THE SOUTH PUGET
SOUND. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM/11Z WERE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
DISSIPATING FRONT FALLING APART OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE REBUILDING THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
INLAND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER THINNING A LITTLE ALLOWING SOME
PLACES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD MORE MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA MAKING FOR ANOTHER PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FRONT EAST OF 130W BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BUT RAIN STILL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 50.
FRONT SPLITTING AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO PREVENT A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN
WILL HOLD OFF IN THE SEATTLE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER
DRY DAY TUESDAY WILL TIE THE RECORD LONG JANUARY DRY STREAK IN
SEATTLE AT 15 DAYS. CHANCES OF BREAKING THE RECORD NOT VERY GOOD
AT ALL AS THE FLOW ALOFT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REACHING THE COAST MIDDAY
WITH THE RAIN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS UP
AROUND 5000 FEET BUT EASTERLY GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
COULD TRAP SOME COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER PASSES ( STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE ) BRINGING UP THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE PASSES WEDNESDAY. CLOUDY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR THE WARMEST MORNING IN AWHILE WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR 50.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE RECORD JANUARY DRY STREAK FOR SEATTLE IS
15 DAYS ( JANUARY 16-30, 1963 ). THIS STREAK HAS 4 DAYS WITH A
TRACE INCLUDING 3 DAYS WITH SNOW FLURRIES. THE CURRENT 13 DAY
DRY STREAK WITH ZERO PRECIPITATION, NOT EVEN A TRACE, IS THE
LONGEST ONE ON RECORD IN SEATTLE. THERE HAVE BEEN TWO 12 DAY
STREAKS WITH ZERO PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY IN SEATTLE, JANUARY
11-22, 2013 AND JANUARY 19-30, 1945. FELTON
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUING TO TREND WETTER IN THE EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WELL TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. BACK TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING FOR LATE
JANUARY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A FRONT
STALLING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. LARGE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 140W AND 150W FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
STALL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND PUMP UP A
TEMPORARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LAST LONG WITH
THE FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT REMAINING BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET FOR THE MOST
PART. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S. FELTON
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH TODAY. VFR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODIC MVFR STRATUS WILL
EXIST ALONG THE COAST INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT E/SE SURFACE
WINDS.
KSEA...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT
S/SE SURFACE WINDS, MAINLY BELOW 6 KTS. JD
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS
A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED
TO REACH SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN
MORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS TO GALE LIKELY FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THIS REASON, A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY. LATEST PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES ABOUT A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE
GUSTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN THEN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS AND LIKELY
BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEADLINES AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 3-6 FT TODAY, BEFORE BUILDING TO
11-15 FT ON TUESDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS 18-20
FT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARDS 10-15 FT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT GENERALLY WITHIN THE 10-15 FT
RANGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
14
HYDROLOGY
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INCREASING OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO NEAR 6000
FEET IN THE OLYMPICS BY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH A FEW 6 INCH BULLSEYES. THIS AMOUNT
OF RAIN WILL PUSH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY NEAR FLOOD
STAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO RIVER FLOODING ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE RIVERS IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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