343
FXUS66 KSEW 262116
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
116 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, THEN MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR RIVERS OF THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
QUIET CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, OPENING THE DOOR FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.
INITIALLY, THIS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST, A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. REFS GUIDANCE INDICATES BETWEEN
A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE. HOWEVER, BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, IT'S
EXPECTED THAT CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP ENOUGH TO BRING AN END TO
THAT THREAT.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING FROM 3500-4000 FEET
INITIALLY ON UP TO AROUND 5000-6000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TO BETWEEN 6000-7000 FEET FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA, BUT
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND THE AREAS FROM ISLAND
COUNTY NORTHWARD. WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC AND A STORM SYSTEM WELL
OFF THE COAST WILL ALSO GENERATE WAVES THAT COULD APPROACH 20
FEET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING WAVES
FLIRTING WITH HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BY THE WEEKEND, THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN A BIT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST BUT THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. THE MAIN ITEM
OF NOTE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WHICH
MAY FLIRT WITH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR THE PUGET SOUND AND
SALISH SEA ON AT LEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID, MSLP WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AND WINDS WILL BE LOWER, DECREASING THE RISK
OF A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT.
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FAVOR
RIDGING AGAIN, LIKELY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
-WOLCOTT-
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON BRIEFLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR WEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY. VFR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
INTO TONIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AM BEFORE A RETURN OF LOWER
STRATUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO HIGH CLOUD COVER, BUT LOCALIZED FOG MAY DEVELOP, MAINLY OLM
SOUTHWARDS. E/SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KSEA...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT S/SE SURFACE WINDS INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY UNDER 6 KTS. JD
MARINE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT, AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, DUE TO A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY DUE TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR THE INTERIOR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LIKELY NECESSARY,
INCLUDING GALES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH A FRONT AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FEET TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS 15 TO 20 FEET LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SEAS NEAR 15 FT CONTINUING INTO
LATE WEEK WITH THE ACTIVE PATTERN. JD
HYDROLOGY
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 6000-7000
FEET. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THERE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO
THE WEEKEND. OTHER RIVERS ORIGINATING FROM THE OLYMPICS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED, INCLUDING THE BOGACHIEL. FOR RIVERS COMING
FROM THE CASCADES, THE FLOOD THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW. IT WOULD
GENERALLY TAKE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE TO
GENERATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. IN OTHER WORDS, IT CANNOT YET
BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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