200
FXUS66 KSEW 271957
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1157 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST THIS MORNING.
SPLITTING WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS
ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. CROSS CASCADE
GRADIENT DOWN TO -6 MB AT 2 AM/10Z. LOCATIONS WITH SOME EXPOSURE
TO THE INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS, LIKE PAINE FIELD IN EVERETT,
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BEFORE NOON. APPROACHING FRONT NOT MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL TO THE NORTH, A WAVE
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND THE JET AIMED AT
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON. CLOUDS THICKENING LATER
TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SYSTEM NOT BEGINNING UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF PUGET SOUND. HIGHS NEAR 50.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT REACHING THE COAST OVERNIGHT. CROSS
CASCADE GRADIENTS PEAKING OUT NEAR -9 MB GIVING THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS SOME GUSTY, 30 TO 35 MPH, EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. RAIN
SLOWLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL IF
SEATTLE CAN RECORD ANOTHER DRY DRY TO ADD ON TO THE CURRENT 14
DAY DRY STREAK WITH RAIN PREDICTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
PASSES WILL CREATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
BRINGING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IN SNOQUALMIE AND
STEVENS PASS. LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
FRONT FALLING APART OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FLOW ALOFT CONSOLIDATING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE AREA. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM REACHING THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CROSS CASCADE
GRADIENT TRENDING TOWARDS ZERO WITH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE PASSES
EASING. THIS SHOULD ERODE THE SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR IN THE
PASSES BY AFTERNOON ENDING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT. HIGHS NEAR
50.
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY KEEPING THE WET
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR, 30 TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET BY THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS BUILD A RIDGE
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY WITH A FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
THIS IS A GOOD PATTERN FOR A VERY WARM DAY THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES INLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ECMWF
ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN WITH
VERY FEW WET SOLUTIONS. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS EXCITED
ABOUT THE RIDGE WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE SOLUTIONS REMAINING WET.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE THE PASSES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOWER 60S SATURDAY IF THE RIDGE SOLUTION WINS OUT. LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. FELTON
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFT INLAND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A RESULT.
CONDITIONS AT THE AREA TERMINALS ARE PRIMARILY VFR, WITH MID TO HIGH
CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 KT (WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE) BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON (00-03Z) AND THEN
PUSH INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING (03-06Z). CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN TONIGHT, BUT
LOOK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
THE DAY. LIGHT S/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO
THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 03-06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
14/MCMILLIAN
MARINE
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY,
BRINGING SOUTHERLY GALES TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND TO THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AS IT MOVES INLAND
THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARE ALSO
LIKELY ALONG ADMIRALTY INLET AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AS
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL BUILD FROM 3-6 FT THIS MORNING TO 10-14 FT BY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND TO THE EASTERN STRAIT (WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES ROUGHLY A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES REDEVELOPING).
IN ADDITION TO WINDS, SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TO 15-20 FT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY, BUT LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND
RANGE BETWEEN 10-12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
14
HYDROLOGY
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS
WILL CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO RISE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE
RIVER COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.
MORE LIKELY THE RIVER WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER THURSDAY
AND REMAIN OVER FLOOD STAGE INTO SATURDAY. NO RIVER FLOODING
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
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