106
FXUS66 KSEW 272328
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
328 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS, IS APPROACHING THE
REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EACH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AROUND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN IS LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE TOWARD THE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN GUSTY WINDS TO THE COAST ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION
OFFSHORE THAT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR. WE'LL SEE THIS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE CASCADES, THERE'S A SMALL (10-20%) CHANCE OF
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE SURFACE COOLER AIR; GIVEN THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MARGINAL PROFILE, THIS REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY SCENARIO.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES REACH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING TO AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT BY THURSDAY, BUT DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR SETS UP, THIS COULD
VARY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. THAT SAID, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND THIS IS WHERE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL REMAINS THE HIGHEST - SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS CONCERN.
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS, MAINLY FOR
THE COAST AND THE AREAS FROM ISLAND COUNTY NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE,
WAVES NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 18-20 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE IN LOCK-STEP REGARDING THE 500 MB PATTERN IN
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. THEIR SOLUTIONS FAVOR GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND NE PAC. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF FRONTS ENTER W WA WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY BARRING A FEW SHOWERS
BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TAKES AIM ON SUNDAY AND SO FORTH.
REOCCURRING SPELLS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE BREEZY WITH ARE
EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE THE PASSES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
MCMILLIAN
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER-TROUGH LOOMS OFFSHORE. WITH THAT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
ARE VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO 10-20 KT (WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE) AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT KBLI. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES. RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON (00-02Z) AND THEN BREAK INTO SHOWERS
AS IT PUSHES INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING (AFTER 04Z).
CONDITIONS GENERALLY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT, BUT LOOK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, A FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. BRIEF GUSTS TO 25-
30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 04-06Z. AS MENTIONED, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HREF
IS SHOWING 40-60% CHANCE OF CIGS BELOW 3,000 FT AND A 15% PROB OF
CIGS BELOW 1,000 FT. CONFIDENCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
MCMILLIAN
MARINE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL EXPAND
TO THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONT (EXCEPT
FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT). SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
BUILD AROUND AROUND 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-14 FT OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND TO THE EASTERN STRAIT (AROUND A 60-70% CHANCE
OF GALES). IN ADDITION TO WINDS, SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TO 15-20 FT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY, BUT LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND
RANGE BETWEEN 10-12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT APPRECIABLE, OR ANY, RAINFALL,
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY TO
ONCE AGAIN START JUICING UP AREA RIVERS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS, ALONG WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING FROM 4000 FEET
UP TO 6000 FEET, WILL CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO BEGIN RISING OUT
OF ITS DOLDRUMS WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER COULD THEN REACH FLOOD STAGE AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY. THE
RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO SATURDAY. NO RIVER FLOODING
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page