416
FXUS66 KSEW 281018
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
218 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL BACK-TO-BACK SYSTEMS BRING ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST. A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEMS ARRIVES ON
SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER, NOT A TON OF THIS IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, AS THERE IS A DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
THAT IS EVAPORATING SOME OF THE RAIN. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE
PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE LOWLANDS, WITH A
FEW TENTHS IN THE OLYMPICS WHERE THE UPSLOPE REGIME IS HELPING
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME MORE RAIN. AT THE PASSES, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH VERTICAL PROFILE INDICATING SNOWFALL
BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. WINDS HAVE PEAKED AND
WILL EASE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT REMAIN IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
ON ITS TAIL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST, MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE FOR MOST,
BUT SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND AROUND WHIDBEY/SAN JUAN ISLANDS. RAIN AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE ABOVE PASS LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, EASING
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE AND LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR COMING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAN TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN AT THE PASSES THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL, REACHING
THE 5000-6000 FT RANGE THURSDAY AND REMAIN LIKE SO.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE 0.25-0.5"
RANGE THROUGH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE OLYMPICS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
FAVORED (1-3", LOCALLY UP TO 4"+). THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IMPACTS IN THIS AREA. SEE HYDROLOGY BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AGAIN, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM, WITH RENEWED, ALBEIT LESSER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AS WELL AS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ON THE PACIFIC COAST, LARGE WAVES WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHERE WAVES UP TO 18-20 FT WILL
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY WILL DEPART LATE FRIDAY. THERE
IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DISTANCE AND TIME
IN BETWEEN THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE A
BIT, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RETURNING TO COOL, WET, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL TO
RETURNING TO A LARGE RIDGING/OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS GET PUSHED WELL
NORTH INTO B.C. AND ALASKA. THERE REMAINS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITH WET SOLUTIONS INTO NEXT WEEK (DUE TO A LOWER-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE), BUT THE VAST MAJORITY FAVOR THE FORMER.
THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE REACH NEW MOON ON FEB 1. AT THIS
TIME, THE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE
IMPACTS, WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED PRIMARILY
FOR SENSITIVE AREAS IN THE PUGET SOUND AND SALISH SEA. THE
COASTAL FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AND
REFINED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
62
AVIATION
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR THIS
MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHQM, WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE
ALREADY LOWERED TO MVFR. THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 16-19Z AND INTO
THE INTERIOR TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-21Z. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS A RESULT AND REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY MVFR INTO THURSDAY. WINDS
PERSISTING OUT THE SE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 7-12 KT COULD BE BREEZY
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST (KHQM) AND ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR (KBLI), WHERE LOCALIZED
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
KSEA...SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 19-21Z. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 7-12 KT, BUT COULD
BE GUSTY TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPTICK IN WINDS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM,
WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
14
MARINE
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY PUSHING INLAND IS BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE INTERIOR WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GALES TO THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERALL, EXPECT WINDS TO
EASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BREEZY, WITH MOST AREA WATERS (OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN STRAIT) STILL EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTY SMALL CRAFT
SOUTHERLIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10-14 FT THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GALES
TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN STRAIT. THE EXTENT OF
GALES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AS WELL, WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATING A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE. ELSEWHERE, OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STRAIT, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN AND PERSIST BETWEEN 20-30 KT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15-20 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES TO THE AREA
WATERS AT TIMES. SEAS HOVERING BETWEEN 12-16 FT ON FRIDAY WILL
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 9-12 FT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
14
HYDROLOGY
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS- WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 4
INCHES, WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS, IN ADDITION TO SNOW LEVELS RISING
TO 6000-7000 FEET, WILL CAUSE RISES ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. AT
THIS TIME, THE RIVER COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
MORNING AND LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO SATURDAY. WHILE
RISES WILL OCCUR ON OTHER AREA RIVERS, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA RIVERS.
14
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
OLYMPIC PENINSULA-MIDDLE CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY-OLYMPIA
AND SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND-OLYMPICS-SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL-
WILLAPA AND BLACK HILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GRAYS
HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL-WEST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
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