737
FXUS66 KSEW 281711
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
911 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL BACK-TO-BACK SYSTEMS BRING ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST. A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEMS ARRIVES ON
SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER, NOT A TON OF THIS IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, AS THERE IS A DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
THAT IS EVAPORATING SOME OF THE RAIN. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE
PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE LOWLANDS, WITH A
FEW TENTHS IN THE OLYMPICS WHERE THE UPSLOPE REGIME IS HELPING
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME MORE RAIN. AT THE PASSES, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH VERTICAL PROFILE INDICATING SNOWFALL
BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. WINDS HAVE PEAKED AND
WILL EASE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT REMAIN IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
ON ITS TAIL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST, MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE FOR MOST,
BUT SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND AROUND WHIDBEY/SAN JUAN ISLANDS. RAIN AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE ABOVE PASS LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, EASING
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE AND LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR COMING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAN TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN AT THE PASSES THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL, REACHING
THE 5000-6000 FT RANGE THURSDAY AND REMAIN LIKE SO.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE 0.25-0.5"
RANGE THROUGH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE OLYMPICS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
FAVORED (1-3", LOCALLY UP TO 4"+). THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IMPACTS IN THIS AREA. SEE HYDROLOGY BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AGAIN, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM, WITH RENEWED, ALBEIT LESSER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AS WELL AS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ON THE PACIFIC COAST, LARGE WAVES WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHERE WAVES UP TO 18-20 FT WILL
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY WILL DEPART LATE FRIDAY. THERE
IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DISTANCE AND TIME
IN BETWEEN THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE A
BIT, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RETURNING TO COOL, WET, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL TO
RETURNING TO A LARGE RIDGING/OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS GET PUSHED WELL
NORTH INTO B.C. AND ALASKA. THERE REMAINS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITH WET SOLUTIONS INTO NEXT WEEK (DUE TO A LOWER-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE), BUT THE VAST MAJORITY FAVOR THE FORMER.
THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE REACH NEW MOON ON FEB 1. AT THIS
TIME, THE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE
IMPACTS, WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED PRIMARILY
FOR SENSITIVE AREAS IN THE PUGET SOUND AND SALISH SEA. THE
COASTAL FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AND
REFINED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
62
AVIATION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC PRODUCING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE REGIONWIDE IN INCREASING
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD TO THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT COASTAL
AREAS AND ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR.
KSEA...A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR IN INCREASING RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS S/SE 7 TO 10
KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 27
MARINE
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SEND A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
AN ACTIVE PATTERN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT ENTRANCES WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR WIND THRESHOLDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A WEAKER FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 TO 18 FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 27
HYDROLOGY
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ON THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS- WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 4
INCHES, WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS, IN ADDITION TO SNOW LEVELS RISING
TO 6000-7000 FEET, WILL CAUSE RISES ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. AT
THIS TIME, THE RIVER COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
MORNING AND LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO SATURDAY. WHILE
RISES WILL OCCUR ON OTHER AREA RIVERS, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA RIVERS.
14
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FOOTHILLS OF THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA-MIDDLE CHEHALIS
RIVER VALLEY-OLYMPIA AND SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND-OLYMPICS-
SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL-WILLAPA AND BLACK HILLS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET-GRAYS HARBOR BAR-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING
THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PST THURSDAY FOR
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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