602
FXUS66 KSEW 290412
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
811 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES BRINGING ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK ON
SATURDAY AS TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STRONGLY
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING A STRETCH OF WARMER
AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL SLOWLY PASS OVER THE
AREA CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH PER HOUR, FAIRLY LIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDES OF BOTH THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES WHERE RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 0.25 OF AN INCH PER HOUR
HAVE EMERGED HERE AND THERE. INHERITED FORECAST, INCLUDING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, COVERING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL. NO EVENING UPDATE
NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS, REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. 18
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INCREASING WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. WE'LL SEE
STEADIER RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS INCREASING AS EACH IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTS
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 30 MPH FOR MOST, WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER
GUSTS IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS EVENING, BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
FOR THE CASCADE PASSES. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY HANG AROUND 4500-5000
INTO THURSDAY, AND FLUCTUATE A BIT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
FRIDAY. REGARDLESS, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL SNOW TO SPEAK
OF THIS WEEK. WITH THE STEADY RAIN REMAINING OVER THE OLYMPICS,
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER, BUT THE RISK IS VERY
LOW ELSEWHERE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
MEANWHILE, HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 18-20 FT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SURF CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER. 12
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY MILD DAY THAT LIKELY REMAINS DRY IN THE
LOWLANDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THAT TAPER AS HEIGHTS RISE. ONE MORE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES
SUNDAY, FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND BREEZY WINDS
THAT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THIS, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS VERY STRONGLY ALIGNED TO FAVOR HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE DRY STRETCH WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE SECOND PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANY DISTURBANCES ARE
BLOCKED AND DIVERTED WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE LARGER FROM ABOUT SATURDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE AREN'T
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAY ELEVATE THIS
POTENTIAL, THE TIMING OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WEATHER SYSTEM
COULD BRING SOME LOWER PRESSURE AND GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD
PROVIDE FOR A HIGHER RISK INTO NEXT WEEK FOR MORE PRONE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SALISH SEA COASTLINE. 12
AVIATION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC PRODUCING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT
ISOLATED IFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED COASTAL
AREAS AND ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR.
KSEA...VFR BUT POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN AT TIMES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS S/SE 7 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. 27
MARINE
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SEND A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
AN ACTIVE PATTERN. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND EAST STRAIT ENTRANCE
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR WIND THRESHOLDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A WEAKER FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 TO 18 FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 27
HYDROLOGY
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS REMAINING AIMED AT THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE OLYMPICS,
WITH LOCALIZED 4+ INCHES IN THE FAVORED SOUTH FACING SLOPES.
THIS, ALONG WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER STARTING DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD MAINTAIN FLOWS AROUND OR
CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE SKOKOMISH. OTHER
RIVERS DRAINING FROM THE OLYMPICS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS EACH ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES, BUT RIVER FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. 12
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FOOTHILLS OF THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA-MIDDLE CHEHALIS
RIVER VALLEY-OLYMPIA AND SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND-OLYMPICS-
SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL-WILLAPA AND BLACK HILLS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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