101
FXUS66 KSEW 291714
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
914 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY REBUILDS SATURDAY FOR A WARMER AND DRIER DAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND
STRONGLY REBUILDS OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING A STRETCH
OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE COLD FRONT HAS LARGELY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. NO MAJOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
BELOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE AVIATION SECTION.
BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH GUSTS 25-35
MPH BEING OBSERVED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
LATE MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE, MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BREAK AS THE WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT, BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ON THE OLYMPICS, THAT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. WITH SNOW
LEVELS 5000-6000 FT, RAIN WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
ON SATURDAY, A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP FOR
MOST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THE NORTH COAST. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60. LOWS A BIT COOLER, IN THE LOWER 40S.
LARGE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP TO AROUND 16-18 FT ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, DEVELOPING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.
WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
62
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, RETURNING TO WET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND BEGIN TO BUILD ON MONDAY, BUT ANOTHER
WARM FRONT MAY JUST SKIRT THE REGION, KEEPING CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST, IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY INTO
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FROM TUESDAY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP ONCE
AGAIN, BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE IMPACTS, WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED PRIMARILY FOR SENSITIVE AREAS IN THE PUGET
SOUND AND SALISH SEA. THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED AND REFINED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
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AVIATION
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ALONG THE
COAST WITH MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN. OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH INTERIOR AREAS BECOMING A MIXED BAG OF
LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR IN INCREASING RAIN TONIGHT. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
KSEA...VFR WILL LOWER TO OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVFR IN RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD DECREASING PRECIP
AND LIFTING CEILINGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY 8 TO 11 KNOTS
EASING TO 7 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. 27
MARINE
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GALES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE EASTERN STRAIT AND SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH SOUTHERLIES TO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COASTAL SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 12-16 FT.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER,
WEAKER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 9-12 FT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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HYDROLOGY
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS REMAINING AIMED AT THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS, WITH
LOCALIZED 4+ INCHES STILL POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. THIS, ALONG WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER BY LATE MORNING TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND COULD KEEP THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN OR CLOSE TO FLOOD
STAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHER RIVERS DRAINING FROM THE OLYMPICS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH EACH ROUND OF RAIN,
BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
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SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GRAYS
HARBOR BAR-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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