096
FXUS66 KSEW 292229
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
229 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS TEMPORARILY. AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY FOR RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS NEXT WEEK FOR MORE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY FOR RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THROUGH
THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EXPECT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
20-35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME
POPS LEFT ON THE COAST AND IN THROUGH THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS NEAR WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S, EVEN TOUCHING 60 IN THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AREA. GIVEN
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH ABOVE PASS LEVELS, FOR RAIN ACROSS THE PASSES WHICH
OF COURSE ISN'T GREAT FOR A STRUGGLING SNOWPACK.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR MORE
RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST IN EARNEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PASSING SYSTEM MAY NOT FULLY BE DETERRED BY THE RIDGE AND THE
WARM FRONT MAY STILL CLIP THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
ARE STILL SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON SUNDAY IS QUITE LIMITED, AND
OF ALL LOCATIONS THAT HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING IT
WOULD BE IN THE PORT ANGELES TO PORT TOWNSEND REGION AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THE PRESSURES RAPIDLY RISING, THE THREAT IS LOW,
BUT SOMETHING THAT WILL BE WATCHED FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF
PUGET SOUND AND INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
BEYOND THE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST, PERHAPS THE MORE
SIGNATURE MARK OF THE RIDGE RETURNING INTO NEXT WEEK ARE THE
TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
50S AND POTENTIALLY LOW 60S COME TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
21
AVIATION
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT BRUSHES THE COAST. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH INTERIOR AREAS BECOMING A MIXED BAG OF
LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR IN INCREASING RAIN TONIGHT. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
KSEA...MOSTLY HIGH END MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD DECREASING PRECIP
AND LIFTING CEILINGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO MVFR FOR A
PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS INLAND
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY 8 TO 11 KNOTS
WILL EASE TO 7 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AND
RISING TO 8 TO 13 KNOTS WILL THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT MIDDAY
FRIDAY.
27
MARINE
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GALES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE EASTERN STRAIT AND SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH SOUTHERLIES TO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COASTAL SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 12-16 FT.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER,
WEAKER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 9-12 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
14/27
HYDROLOGY
ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH WILL LIKELY BEGIN RECEDING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FROM MINOR FLOOD. NO OTHER AREA
RIVERS SEEM TO BE AT RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND WHAT'S LEFT TO
COME OUT OF THE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL EASE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
21
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-
WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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