629
FXUS66 KSEW 300351
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
750 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WET WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TEMPORARILY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEXT WEEK FOR MORE DRY AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA
IS KEEPING CURRENT RADAR BUSY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE AKIN TO THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING RAINFALL RATES LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND THE
CASCADES AND ASSOCIATED FOOTHILLS ARE SEEING PRECIP RATES RANGING
FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO ALMOST A HALF INCH PER HOUR. LOCATIONS
WHERE THIS IS OCCURRING ARE EASILY VISIBLE BY THE MORE INTENSE
ECHOES ON THE CURRENT LOOP. SOME OF THESE HIGHER RATES WERE PRESENT
OVER THE SOUTH SOUND EARLIER IN THE EVENING, BUT THESE SEEM TO HAVE
RELAXED AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. NO EVENING UPDATES ARE PLANNED. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. 18
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY FOR RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THROUGH THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME
POPS LEFT ON THE COAST AND IN THROUGH THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS NEAR WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S, EVEN TOUCHING 60 IN THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AREA. GIVEN
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE MUCH ABOVE PASS LEVELS, FOR RAIN ACROSS THE PASSES WHICH
OF COURSE ISN'T GREAT FOR A STRUGGLING SNOWPACK.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR MORE
RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST IN EARNEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PASSING SYSTEM MAY NOT FULLY BE DETERRED BY THE RIDGE AND THE
WARM FRONT MAY STILL CLIP THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
ARE STILL SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON SUNDAY IS QUITE LIMITED, AND
OF ALL LOCATIONS THAT HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING IT
WOULD BE IN THE PORT ANGELES TO PORT TOWNSEND REGION AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THE PRESSURES RAPIDLY RISING, THE THREAT IS LOW,
BUT SOMETHING THAT WILL BE WATCHED FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF
PUGET SOUND AND INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
BEYOND THE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST, PERHAPS THE MORE
SIGNATURE MARK OF THE RIDGE RETURNING INTO NEXT WEEK ARE THE
TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
50S AND POTENTIALLY LOW 60S COME TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
21
AVIATION
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH
INTERIOR AREAS BECOMING A MIXED BAG OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR
IN INCREASING RAIN TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
KSEA...MOSTLY LOW-END VFR TO HIGH-END MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN THIS
EVENING. AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD DECREASING PRECIP AND LIFTING
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS INLAND ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY 8 TO 11 KNOTS WILL EASE TO 7
KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AND RISING TO 8 TO
13 KNOTS WILL THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT MIDDAY FRIDAY.
33/27
MARINE
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GALES TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN STRAIT AND SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH
SOUTHERLIES TO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
COASTAL SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 12-16 FT.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER,
WEAKER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 9-12 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
14/27
HYDROLOGY
ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH WILL LIKELY BEGIN RECEDING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FROM MINOR FLOOD. NO OTHER AREA
RIVERS SEEM TO BE AT RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND WHAT'S LEFT TO
COME OUT OF THE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL EASE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
21
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-
WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page