010
FXUS66 KSEW 301125
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
325 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
FRONT DISSIPATING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A WARM FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.
TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON INTO NEXT WEEKEND GIVING THE AREA
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARM FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH A BREAK IN THE
RAIN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE AIR MASS ARE SATURATED. FOG HAS
FORMED IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND AND SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL WITH
VISIBILITIES A MILE OR LESS. MILD OUTSIDE THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM/11Z IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
WET AND MILD PATTERN CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. RAIN ON THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD INLAND BY
LATE MORNING. RAIN ALL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE PASS
LEVELS, 5000 FEET RISING TO NEAR 7000 FEET. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.
COLD FRONT DISSIPATING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT OFFSHORE GETTING DEFLECTED A LITTLE BY THE RIDGE BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO CREATE A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.
SATURDAY MORNING A RACE BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE AND THE WARM
FRONT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION IN
THE MORNING. DRYING FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS PUTS WESTERN
WASHINGTON IN THE WARM SECTOR SO EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S IN THE WARMER
LOCATIONS.
SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN CONTINUING SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S.
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY GETTING FEBRUARY OFF TO A
WET START. SNOW LEVELS DROPPING A LITTLE BUT STILL IN THE 4500
TO 5500 FOOT RANGE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE REACH A NEW MOON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME,
THE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO EXACERBATE THE FLOODING, WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED PRIMARILY FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
ALONG THE COAST, IN THE PUGET SOUND AND SALISH SEA.
SOME STATS AS WE COME TO THE END OF THE MONTH. THIS SHORT RUN
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL PUSH THE
SEATTLE AVERAGE MONTHLY JANUARY TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL BY
LESS THAN A DEGREE. IF IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN WARMER THEN
THAT IT IS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN WARM THE LAST THREE
MONTHS. THE SEATTLE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 2025
THROUGH JANUARY 2026 IS GOING TO END UP BEING THE 2ND WARMEST IN
82 YEARS SURPASSED BARELY BY NOVEMBER 2018 TO JANUARY 2019.
COUNTING THE NEXT TWO DAYS THERE WILL BE 55 DAYS WITH HIGHS 50
DEGREES PLUS IN SEATTLE BETWEEN NOVEMBER AND JANUARY. THE NORMAL
IS 39 DAYS. THE MOST RECORDED IS 58 DAYS, NOVEMBER 2018 TO
JANUARY 2019 AND NOVEMBER 2002 TO JANUARY 2003. FELTON
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD
MONDAY BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANOTHER WARM FRONT FROM
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 570
DMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BLEND HAS PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WEST OF PUGET SOUND AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. CAN'T SAY THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE
COMPLETELY DRY BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ONLY HAVE
AROUND 10 PERCENT WET SOLUTIONS FOR QUILLAYUTE. LOOK FOR THESE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO GO AWAY IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. RIDGE
RETROGRADING A LITTLE THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. VAST MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE
HIGH IN SEATTLE WEDNESDAY ARE 60 OR 61 DEGREES. GFS ENSEMBLES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. THE RECORD HIGH IN SEATTLE WEDNESDAY
IS 63 DEGREES SET IN 2009. ALL THREE DAYS, TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, HIGHS UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FELTON
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AS THE AREA
SITS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WHOSE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY REMAINS OFFSHORE. AREAS AROUND THE SOUTH SOUND AND AT CLM
HAVE FOGGED IN THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
IN THE NORTH INTERIOR, GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE HELPING TO
KEEP THE FOG AWAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING WINDS LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD
HELP TO MIX OUT ANY FOG BY AROUND 15Z. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE TONIGHT.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AREAS IN THE SOUTH
SOUND HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOG. THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 15Z, WHEN WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND THIS WILL DEPEND ON
TRENDS THIS MORNING IN THE WINDS AND FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINAL. MVFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT AS WELL. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 15Z, PEAKING BETWEEN 18-00Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS LATE TODAY. GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND ADMIRALTY INLET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS, WINDS WILL EASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ON
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA WATERS ON SUNDAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR OFFSHORE FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA,
PUSHING INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS OFF TO THE NORTH.
SEAS AROUND 12 TO 15 FT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EASE TONIGHT TO
AROUND 10-12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING BY OFF
TO THE WEST WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
62
HYDROLOGY
SKOKOMISH RIVER REMAINING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY DROPPING BELOW
FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. EVEN WITH ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MONDAY ONCE THE SKOKOMISH FALLS BELOW
FLOOD STAGE IT IS NOT FORECAST TO RETURN TO FLOOD STAGE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NO FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR THE
OTHER RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
JUAN ISLANDS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND
TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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