735
FXUS66 KSEW 310342
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
740 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN TAPER OFF COMPLETELY
FOR MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD BACK INTO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYING
AND A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK
POTENTIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WHILE A MIX OF
LOW TO MID CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE SOUND AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH.
LATEST RADAR SHOWING THAT MOST PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS DIED OFF,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LINGERING PATCH OVER PORTIONS OF WHATCOM AND
SKAGIT COUNTIES THAT REEKS OF CONVERGENCE ZONE. EVEN THOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY PERSISTS, ECHOES ARE WEAK, THUS KEEPING PRECIP LIGHT. AS
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH, CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS ROUND OF PRECIP IS DONE...WITH
THE NEXT FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
INHERITED FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. NO NEED FOR EVENING UPDATES.
FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. 18
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WET AND MILD PATTERN CONTINUING FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
BUT THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING RAIN FOR THE COAST AND A PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY MIDDAY. THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY DRY -
AND FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER.
RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL WORK ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE INTERIOR BY
MIDMORNING. THIS WILL BRING A BIT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION - ON THE
ORDER OF 1/3 TO 1/2 IN TO THE COAST AND AROUND A 1/4 IN FORM
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE COLD
FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 25 MPH. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ABOUT 20% OF THE
GRAND ENSEMBLE TRENDING A LITTLE BIT STRONGER WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS AND A BIT OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT MAY BRING A BIT OF INSTABILITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO THE COAST AND NORTHERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA WHERE THERE
LOOKS TO BE AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDER. SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY
WILL START OF IN THE 4500 TO 5500 FOOT RANGE WITH SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR ALOFT HELPING THEN DIP TO AROUND 4000 FEET SUNDAY
EVENING.
A PERIOD OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FOR THE HIGH TIDES
SUNDAY PRIMARILY FOR SENSITIVE AREAS ALONG THE COAST, PUGET
SOUND AND SALISH SEA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM BRUSHING THE AREA
MONDAY ON ITS WAY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. BEYOND MONDAY THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE VERY CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING A 570 DM RIDGE SETTLING
ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE INTO
INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA OR EVEN WELL DOWNSTREAM. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS STARTING TO INDICATE A SHIFT FRIDAY WITH NEARLY HALF OF
THE GRAND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A CHANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AT LEAST BRUSHING THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE KINDS OF PATTERNS THERE MAY ALSO BE
PERIODS OF MORNING FOG PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE PRONE AND
SHELTER AREAS.
AVIATION
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXITS AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY.
KSEA...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A TREND TOWARD VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EXITS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHERLY 7
TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS BACKING TO
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY 7 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
33/27
MARINE
A SERIES OF RATHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS ORIGINATING FROM
A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DEFLECT INCOMING
SYSTEMS FURTHER OFFSHORE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SEAS AROUND 12 TO 15 FT WILL SLOWLY EASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 9-12 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING BY OFF TO THE WEST WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
27
HYDROLOGY
WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BUT NEAR FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. NO FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR THE OTHER RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON.
FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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