831
FXUS66 KSEW 132245
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
245 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWLAND
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER,
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FRONT IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING
STEADIER LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2000 FEET ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE CASCADES, WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR SNOQUALMIE AND
STEVENS PASS, AND NEAR 7 TO 10 INCHES FOR MOUNT BAKER.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS FOCUSED
INTO CALIFORNIA. SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS
ON MONDAY AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING DIVES SOUTHWARDS AND BECOMES
SITUATED OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE
THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WESTERN US. PREDOMINANTLY,
THIS WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK
RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO
CONTINUED TROUGHING. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTHWARDS EARLY MONDAY, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
ANY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY, BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT THIS POINT, DEPENDENT ON THE PRECIPITATION RATES.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL, AND WITH LIKELY SOUTH
FLOW AT THE SURFACE, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWLANDS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON MONDAY.
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL THEN REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN
US INTO MIDWEEK, WITH CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, AS
THE COOLER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. JD
AVIATION
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONT MOVES
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED BAG OF CEILINGS
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN IS BRINGING MVFR/IFR TO
SOME TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS RAIN CONTINUES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR. S/SW SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS IN THE 3-5 SM
RANGE AS SOME HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINAL. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 3 TO 6
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MAZURKIEWICZ
MARINE
A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE MARINE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY ELEVATED SEAS. BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WATERS.
A SERIES OF TROUGHS LOOK TO DIG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
COASTAL SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 FEET RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. SEAS
LOOK TO GET BELOW 10 FEET ON SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING BACK UPWARDS
TO 9 TO 13 FEET BY TUESDAY.
MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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