766
FXUS66 KSEW 140352
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
755 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWLAND
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER,
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A PASSING WEAK FRONT HAS CROSSED THE SOUND AND, AS PER LATEST RADAR,
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE ACTIVITY HAS
SETTLED OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, THUS LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS BOTH WITH THE
FRONT AND BEHIND IT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING 0.25 OF AN INCH PER
RADAR ESTIMATES.
INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO EVENING UPDATES NEEDED.
FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. 18
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT IS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING STEADIER LOWLAND RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2000 FEET ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION
FOR THE CASCADES, WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
FOR SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASS, AND NEAR 7 TO 10 INCHES FOR MOUNT
BAKER.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS FOCUSED
INTO CALIFORNIA. SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS
ON MONDAY AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING DIVES SOUTHWARDS AND BECOMES
SITUATED OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE
THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WESTERN US. PREDOMINANTLY,
THIS WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK
RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO
CONTINUED TROUGHING. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTHWARDS EARLY MONDAY, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
ANY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY, BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT THIS POINT, DEPENDENT ON THE PRECIPITATION RATES.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL, AND WITH LIKELY SOUTH
FLOW AT THE SURFACE, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWLANDS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON MONDAY.
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL THEN REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN
US INTO MIDWEEK, WITH CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, AS
THE COOLER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. JD
AVIATION
MAIN RAIN BAND WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THROUGH THE REST OF
NIGHT. SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED MOVING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING 06-08Z. S/SW WINDS
10 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT N BY
00Z SUN. 33
33/MAZURKIEWICZ
MARINE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE. BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WATERS.
A SERIES OF TROUGHS LOOK TO DIG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
COASTAL SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 FEET RANGE THIS EVENING AND
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. SEAS LOOK TO GET BELOW 10
FEET ON SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING BACK UPWARDS TO 9 TO 13 FEET BY
TUESDAY.
33/MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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