345
FXUS66 KSEW 141807
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1007 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
UPDATE
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST IN THIS MORNING'S
UPDATE. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS BELOW:
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, COLDER
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW SNOW LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHIFT ONSHORE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
DRY OUT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESS WITH MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...MOSTLY MID
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE 30S.
APART FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES, THE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SHIFTS ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.
AND THEN THE CHANGES BEGIN. A 160 TO 170 KNOT JET CORE DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL CARVE OUT A
VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MERGE WITH UPPER TROUGHING
ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A VERTICALLY STACKED TROUGH PARKED JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY...FALLING TO AROUND
-5C OR -6C AT 850 MILLIBARS. THIS PUTS SNOW LEVELS AT 1000 TO
1500 FEET. THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAKES QPF A
TOUGH CALL AT THIS STAGE, BUT IT'LL DEFINITELY BE ALL SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON MONDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH BEYOND THE LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY. OVERALL QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ENSURE THAT
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL BELOW THE PASS LEVELS. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ALMOST ENTIRELY SOUTHERLY...WHICH DOESN'T FAVOR
LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATION APART FROM SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
DEPOSITING A QUICK SKIFF ON SOME OF THE HIGHER HILLS. THE
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SLATED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK, BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF
THE ENSEMBLES LEND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY TO SOME ASPECTS OF
THE FORECAST. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHIFT THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS WITH REGARD TO
THE TRAJECTORY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS DIVING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MEANING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN OVER
WATER TRAJECTORY (MORE MOISTURE) OR "INSIDE SLIDER" (LESS
MOISTURE) ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS
DIFFERENCE IS BARED OUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN TERMS OF BOTH POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...AND, YES, LOWLAND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TOO.
SO, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WHOLE OF NEXT WEEK, ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK, ARE FAR FROM
A LOCK.
27
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS AS SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED UNDER VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REFORM ON SUNDAY MORNING.
KSEA...PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LIFT TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. A RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS IS EXPECTED BY
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHERLY 7 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 22Z AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT.
27
MARINE
A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN THE FLOW NORTHERLY
ACROSS AREA WATERS. A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK
TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE
WATERS INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND-RELATED HEADLINES.
COASTAL SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 10 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ADDITIONAL SWELL TRAINS GENERATED BY ACTIVITY OFFSHORE
PUSH SEAS BACK INTO DOUBLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
27
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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