183
FXUS66 KSEW 142305
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
305 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND REMAIN
LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND LOW SNOW LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
BROAD UPPER-TROUGHING IS POSITIONED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE US WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM, RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING WELL TO OUR SOUTH
ALONG WITH SUBTLE RIDGING OVERHEAD IS LEAVING DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS W WA THIS EVENING. MOST SHOWERS ARE ON TAP TO END BUT A
FEW STRAGGLERS MAY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CASCADES TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
DRIER WEATHER REMAINS INTO SUNDAY AS WE'LL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. MODELS HAVE A CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA AND
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE FURTHER NORTH AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE BC
COAST. THEN, THE LATTER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE JUST OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY EVENING, AS A TROUGH DIGS AND PULLS MOISTURE OFF THE
PACIFIC AND CHANNELING IT TOWARDS W WA. HERE WE'LL SEE OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD POPS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
1,000-1,500 FT DURING THE DAY BEFORE FALLING TO 500 FT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAKES
QPF A TOUGH CALL AT THIS STAGE, BUT IT'LL DEFINITELY BE ALL SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS. CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WET FLAKES
TO FALL IN SHOWERS ACROSS LOWLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT GIVEN
CURRENT INDICATIONS.
41
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
QPF HAS TRENDED LOWER THROUGH MIDWEEK, LIKELY DUE TO THE CORE OF
THE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NOT
TRACKING DIRECTLY OVER WA. ALSO, GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF IT'S
ASSOCIATED PVA FOCUSED WELL TOWARDS OUR SOUTH AS CA RECEIVES THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTION. THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
IS SLATED TO CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK, BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHIFT THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS WITH REGARD TO THE TRAJECTORY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
DIVING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MEANING THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN OVER WATER TRAJECTORY (MORE MOISTURE) OR
"INSIDE SLIDER" (LESS MOISTURE) ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS DIFFERENCE IS BARED OUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES) IN TERMS OF BOTH POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...AND,
YES, LOWLAND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TOO. THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN QPF TOWARDS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
SO, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WHOLE OF NEXT WEEK, ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK, ARE FAR FROM
A LOCK.
27/41
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH MORE
NORTHWESTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY TONIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING MORE ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY. MOSTLY VFR UNDER VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT AGAIN, TRANSITION TO MORE VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
KSEA...VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A RETURN OF MVFR
CEILINGS IN STRATUS IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 12-14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS TURNING MORE OUT OF THE N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR LIKELY TO REBOUND BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY.
MARINE
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
SLOWLY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE B.C. COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE ACTIVE PATTERN, WINDS GENERALLY DO NOT LOOK TO BE OF
CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURPASS 20 KT IN THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS EARLY ON MONDAY. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS LATE-WEEK
MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS THAT MAY REQUIRE HEADLINES. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
SEAS 9 TO 10 FT TODAY WILL VERY SLOWLY EASE TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT
TOMORROW. WAVES RISE BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 13 FT MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
EASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
62
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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