658
FXUS66 KSEW 151649
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
849 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION. A COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR
FORECAST UPDATES, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN UPPER LOW STATIONED
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY
MAINTAIN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LEWIS
AND PIERCE COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY
WINDS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY
BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE ON MONDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ALONGSIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWER-LIKE IN
NATURE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST ON MONDAY, ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED TO BE
LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 1000-1500 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WILL FALL TO NEAR 500 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WET FLAKES FOR SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER,
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BELOW ABOUT 1500
FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS ARE ON TRACK TO SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH ROUGHLY 4 TO 6 INCHES
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM THROUGH THE CASCADE PASSES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN ANOMALOUSLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-
TERM AS TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS OVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING VARYING TRACKS OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST LOWLAND
AREAS, WITH BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING POSSIBLE OVER NEXT WEEKEND
AS A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. AS OF NOW,
ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE LONG- TERM, AND WHILE
UNLIKELY, THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER
THE LOWLANDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
15
AVIATION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL MAINTAIN W/SWLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVERNIGHT, WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION SEEING MVFR CIGS BY 18Z MONDAY AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS TODAY N 4-8 KT, BECOMING LIGHT (UNDER 5 KT) AND TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, THEN PICKING UP MONDAY 5-10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 18-20 KT POSSIBLE.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRO THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS TODAY 4-8 KT DECREASING TO
UNDER 5 KT TONIGHT AND TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS TO ARRIVE
MONDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIKELY FALLING BACK TO MVFR AROUND 18Z
MON AFTER THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTH WIND WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MONDAY.
HPR/62
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
DROP TO THE SOUTH TODAY WITH SEAS HOLDING AROUND 7-8 FT AND
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM/TROUGH DEEPENING OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
IT PUSHES INLAND. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 20 KT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SEAS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THEM BUILDING UP TO 10-12
FT. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE GUSTY SMALL
CRAFT WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AS WELL
AS THE INTERIOR WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL DROP
TO 7-9 FT, THEN INCREASE TO 10-12 FT NEXT WEEKEND.
HPR
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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