739
FXUS66 KSEW 152157
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
157 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN US THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN CASCADES. A
PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TONIGHT AS A VERY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. SHOWERS RETURN TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION, AND
COLDER AIR BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ALOFT, A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
OCCUR, PARTICULARLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT-MONDAY, WITH REFS/HREF MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
US-101 CORRIDOR WEST OF LAKE CRESCENT WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
OF 1" OF SNOW (OR MORE) THROUGH MONDAY PM (PROBABILITIES PEAKING
AROUND 30 TO 70% ON THE REFS).
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW
LINGERS OFFSHORE OF WASHINGTON/OREGON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME COLDER INTO TUESDAY (850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C),
WITH SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY AM FALLING TOWARDS 200 TO 500 FEET.
ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX (OR JUST SNOW) IN ANY SHOWER. QPF DOES LOOK TO
BE A BIT MORE ENHANCED MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA, AND PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARE
INCREASED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. REFS PROBS RANGE BETWEEN 40 TO 80% CHANCE OF 1" OF
SNOW OR MORE FROM LAKE CRESCENT TOWARDS HOQUIAM DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THIS WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT
OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS ALSO
THE HOOD CANAL WITH LIGHT S/SE SURFACE WINDS AND A BIT OF AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT POTENTIALLY. ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOWER ELSEWHERE OVER PUGET SOUND DUE TO LESS QPF, GIVEN THE
COLDER AIRMASS, WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TUESDAY AM. OTHERWISE, LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PATTERN REMAINS
QUITE SIMILAR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY FRIDAY AS TROUGHING IS
REINFORCED AT TIMES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
ENSEMBLES IN REGARDS TO THE TRACJECTORY OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS
MID TO LATE WEEK, AND THUS, THE CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOWER. WITH THAT SAID,
THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN HEAVIER SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
REMAIN LOW, LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
DUE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH MAY ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY LOCALIZED BANDING OR CONVERGENCE AS FRASER OUTFLOW
BRIEFLY DEVEOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, ENSEMBLES
ARE SUGGESTING THE RETURN OF MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TROUGHING OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST. JD
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN SW TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SALISH SEA INCLUDING CLM. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
BUT SLOWLY BREAK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO LOW-END VFR TO HIGHER-END MVFR CIGS AS RAIN
SHOWERS ARRIVE BETWEEN 12-18Z MON ALONG THE COAST/NORTHWEST
INTERIOR, THEN BY 00Z TUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.
NORTH WINDS 5-10 KT WILL EASE, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING, SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS REACH AROUND 8-12 KT DURING THE
DAY MONDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
OVERNIGHT. LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AROUND 15-
18Z MON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN AFTER
18Z MON AND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE PERIOD.
N WINDS UP TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO EASE, BECOMING
LIGHT FROM 03-06Z MON, SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY AFTER AROUND 08Z AND
INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS PEAK AFTER 18Z UP TO 8-12 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS START TO EASE AFTER 03Z
TUE.
62
MARINE
THE SURFACE RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
GET PUSHED SOUTHWARDS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS BEING THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (50-80% CHANCE). WINDS WILL DECREASE AREA-
WIDE MONDAY EVENING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARDS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THAT A STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES, BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THAT MAKE THE
FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT TODAY WILL RISE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY UP TO 11 TO 13
FT. SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY, LIKELY PUSHING WAVES BACK UP TO AROUND
10 FT THEN. LARGER WAVES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND
COMES TO FRUITION.
62
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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