658
FXUS66 KSEW 160347
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
747 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN US THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
NO MAJOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THE NORTH COAST BUT ARE
LIKELY NOT PRECIPITATING YET. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW WITH AN UPDATE TO THE AVIATION
SECTION.
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TONIGHT AS A VERY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. SHOWERS RETURN TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION, AND
COLDER AIR BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ALOFT, A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
OCCUR, PARTICULARLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT-MONDAY, WITH REFS/HREF MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
US-101 CORRIDOR WEST OF LAKE CRESCENT WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF
1" OF SNOW (OR MORE) THROUGH MONDAY PM (PROBABILITIES PEAKING
AROUND 30 TO 70% ON THE REFS).
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW
LINGERS OFFSHORE OF WASHINGTON/OREGON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME COLDER INTO TUESDAY (850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C),
WITH SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY AM FALLING TOWARDS 200 TO 500 FEET.
ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX (OR JUST SNOW) IN ANY SHOWER. QPF DOES LOOK TO
BE A BIT MORE ENHANCED MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA, AND PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARE
INCREASED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. REFS PROBS RANGE BETWEEN 40 TO 80% CHANCE OF 1" OF
SNOW OR MORE FROM LAKE CRESCENT TOWARDS HOQUIAM DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THIS WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT
OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS ALSO
THE HOOD CANAL WITH LIGHT S/SE SURFACE WINDS AND A BIT OF AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT POTENTIALLY. ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOWER ELSEWHERE OVER PUGET SOUND DUE TO LESS QPF, GIVEN THE
COLDER AIRMASS, WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TUESDAY AM. OTHERWISE, LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY FRIDAY
AS TROUGHING IS REINFORCED AT TIMES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS WELL
AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE ENSEMBLES IN REGARDS TO THE TRACJECTORY OF
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS MID TO LATE WEEK, AND THUS, THE CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOWER.
WITH THAT SAID, THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SNOW
OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HEAVIER SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL REMAIN LOW, LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED DUE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION,
WHICH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY LOCALIZED BANDING OR CONVERGENCE
AS FRASER OUTFLOW BRIEFLY DEVEOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING THE RETURN OF MORE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND WITH TROUGHING OFFSHORE OF THE WEST
COAST. JD
AVIATION
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. VFR
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE AS A MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENTER W
WA IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CIGS STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW-END VFR TO HIGHER-END
MVFR CIGS AS RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE BETWEEN 12-18Z MON ALONG THE
COAST/NORTHWEST INTERIOR, THEN BY 00Z TUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA.
NORTH WINDS 5-10 KT HAVE ALREADY EASED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MOST TERMINALS, ONLY SEA AND HQM ABSTAINING. BOTH TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO JOIN THE OTHERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS AREA-WIDE SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WINDS REACH AROUND 8-12 KT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT. LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED BY AROUND 15-18Z MON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN AFTER 18Z MON AND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE PERIOD.
N WINDS UP TO 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EASE, BECOMING
LIGHT FROM 06-08Z TONIGHT, SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY AFTER AROUND 12Z
AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS PEAK AFTER 18Z MONDAY UP
TO 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS START TO EASE
AFTER 03Z MONDAY EVENING.
18/62
MARINE
THE SURFACE RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARDS
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BEING THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (50-80% CHANCE).
WINDS WILL DECREASE AREA-WIDE MONDAY EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARDS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THAT A STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES, BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THAT MAKE THE FORECAST
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT TODAY WILL RISE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY UP TO 11 TO 13
FT. SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY, LIKELY PUSHING WAVES BACK UP TO AROUND
10 FT THEN. LARGER WAVES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND
COMES TO FRUITION.
62/18
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page