884
FXUS66 KSEW 162311
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
311 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE
LOWLANDS, PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX, PARTICULARLY DURING THE COOLER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 135 PM
RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
WHILE MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN AS RAIN, WEBCAM
OBSERVATIONS ALONG US 101 WEST OF LAKE CRESCENT AND NEAR
HUMPTULIPS HAVE SHOWN PERIODS OF SNOW. MPING REPORTS NEAR
OLYMPIA ALSO INDICATE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS FALLING AS A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR SNOW WILL INCREASE.
BASED ON THE LATEST HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE, THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO EXPERIENCE ACCUMULATING SNOW BETWEEN NOW AND MID-DAY
TUESDAY WILL BE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS SOUTH TO
GRAYS HARBOR, THE WILLAPA HILLS, AND HOOD CANAL. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT HERE. AGAIN, OTHER LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOW.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DECREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
REGARDLESS, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR A RAIN-SNOW
MIX OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE 6-HOUR SNOWFALL REMAINS BELOW 50% FOR ANY INDIVIDUAL
6-HOUR PERIOD, MAINLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECIPITATION ITSELF. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FAVORED TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO INCREASE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, REDUCING THE OVERALL RISK OF LOWLAND
SNOW. HOWEVER, THIS CHANGE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASED WINDS. IN OTHER WORDS, A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
-WOLCOTT-
AVIATION
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VARIABLE CEILINGS (VFR-IFR) THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TREND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX
MUST ALSO BE MENTIONED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WHEN TEMPS ARE COOLEST. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED BUT IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY MAY BE AN ISSUE IF SHOWERS
TRACK DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AREA TERMINALS. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX THREAT
WILL ABATE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FAVORED
TO PERSIST WITH IMPACTS TO CIGS/VIS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
KSEA...VARIABLE CIGS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY. CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN VFR-IFR THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SHOWERS PERSIST. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST.
IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY IS THE MAIN THREAT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL END BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE
AFTER 03Z BUT WILL MAINTAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
SUCCESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL TRACK OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WINDS WON'T BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING A THREAT FOR FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW
DEVELOPING WED-THURS FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. OTHERWISE,
HIGHS SEAS (10-13 FT) ARE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS HERE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SCA REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE
WAVES MAY DRAW NEAR GRAYS HARBOR WHICH WILL NEED MONITORING. THE
PATTERN MAY REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
MCMILLIAN
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TUESDAY FOR FOOTHILLS
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA-LAKE
CRESCENT AREA INCLUDING US 101-LOWER CHEHALIS RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL-WILLAPA AND BLACK HILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page