968
FXUS66 KSEW 170503
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
903 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE
LOWLANDS, PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX, PARTICULARLY DURING THE COOLER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING, WITH REPORTS OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE BELLINGHAM AREA. THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS ARE ALSO STILL FAVORED FOR SOME
SNOW MIXING IN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. NO OTHER MAJOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE THIS EVENING, AND
AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ADDED. THE REST OF THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS FALLING AS A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR SNOW WILL INCREASE.
BASED ON THE LATEST HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE, THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO EXPERIENCE ACCUMULATING SNOW BETWEEN NOW AND MID-DAY
TUESDAY WILL BE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS SOUTH TO
GRAYS HARBOR, THE WILLAPA HILLS, AND HOOD CANAL. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT HERE. AGAIN, OTHER LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOW.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DECREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN, CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
REGARDLESS, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE
6-HOUR SNOWFALL REMAINS BELOW 50% FOR ANY INDIVIDUAL 6-HOUR
PERIOD, MAINLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION
ITSELF. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FAVORED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO INCREASE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, REDUCING THE OVERALL RISK OF LOWLAND
SNOW. HOWEVER, THIS CHANGE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASED WINDS. IN OTHER WORDS, A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
-WOLCOTT-
AVIATION
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARDS OFFSHORE. A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW MIX
EXISTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED BUT IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE AN ISSUE IN HIGHER
INTENSITY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. LIGHT S/SE WINDS
INTO TUESDAY.
KSEA...CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHOWERS PERSIST AT TIMES. A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY OCCUR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
SHOWERS. THE THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL END TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. S/SE WINDS INTO TUESDAY. JD
MARINE
SUCCESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL TRACK OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WINDS WON'T BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING A THREAT FOR FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW DEVELOPING
WED-THURS FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. OTHERWISE, HIGHS SEAS (10-
13 FT) ARE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS HERE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A SCA REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE WAVES MAY DRAW NEAR GRAYS
HARBOR WHICH WILL NEED MONITORING. THE PATTERN MAY REMAIN ACTIVE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
MCMILLIAN
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TUESDAY FOR FOOTHILLS
OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA-LAKE
CRESCENT AREA INCLUDING US 101-LOWER CHEHALIS RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL-WILLAPA AND BLACK HILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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