605
FXUS66 KSEW 181709
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
909 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE MOVING
INLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION REMAINING A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AM HOURS. FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL
RESULT IN COLD WIND CHILLS NEXT FEW MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, AND GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (NOW NEARLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST) REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING,
WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR NEAH BAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
BEING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, BEFORE BEING ALLOWED TO
MOVE INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
SNOHOMISH/SKAGIT COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING, PRECIPITATION TYPE BELOW 500-1000 FT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY RAIN AT THIS POINT AND WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
HREF ENSEMBLES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM THE
COAST INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS, WITH
IMPACTS REMAINING MINIMAL. FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
OF UP TO 15-25 MPH PUSHING DOWN TO AS FAR AS THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S ACROSS A LARGER AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY (AND IS REPLACED BY A
BRIEF RIDGE), THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO JUST
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY FOR MOST AREAS). THERE
WILL REMAIN A WIND CHILL/APPARENT TEMPERATURE CONCERN FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE END OF THE FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW THURSDAY. A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (THANKS TO THE RIDGE), BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHS
IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, TO OFFSHORE OF WASHINGTON THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME WOBBLES IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW (AND JET FUNNELING IN SOME OF THE
MOISTURE), BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREAD
OUT ACROSS THE SATURDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME (WITH THE BULK OF THE
QPF FALLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY). THERE WAS A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF FALLING WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT THE PRIMARY IMPACT REMAINS SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW REMAINING VERY HIGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE OLYMPICS, WITH MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH. ADDITIONALLY,
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE LARGE WAVES OFFSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST, THAT MAY RESULT IN HIGH SURF CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY FOR BEACHES/COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS RETURNING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
HPR
AVIATION
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE COOL WITH AREAS OF
MVFR OR LOCALIZED IFR IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. A GENERAL TREND TOWARD IMPROVING CEILINGS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR MOST AREAS, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCED LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INCREASING AS FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH
INTERIOR. THIS WILL ACT TO DRY THE LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHAT, BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR OR LIFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR, SOUTH PUGET SOUND AND AREAS IN THE
VICINITY OF HOOD CANAL. LOCAL GUSTY SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY NEAR KBLI.
KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 19-20Z. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER THOUGH CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR THRESHOLDS WITH
PASSING SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHERLY 7 KNOT OR
LESS WILL VEER N/NE 7 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING.
27
MARINE
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THE OREGON WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FOR A BRIEF
INCREASE IN FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW AND EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS AND A WEAK RIDGE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND FOR INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LIKELY WIND RELATED
HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, STRAIT ENTRANCES, AND NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 10 FEET TODAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT
INCREASED ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND WILL DRIVE SEAS
BACK INTO HAZARDOUS DOUBLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL LARGE
SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE.
27
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
PZ...NONE.
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