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FXUS66 KSEW 182215
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
215 PM PST WED FEB 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN. COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW. A WARMER PATTERN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BRINGING GUSTY WINDS,
AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA, PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND BRING THE SHOWERS WITH IT.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF TONIGHT, THROUGH SOME OFFSHORE FLOW COULD ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OFF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR A
BIT THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE
AND ALONG US-101. THE MAIN BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS STAYING
OVER THE CASCADES. ON FRIDAY, AS SYSTEMS START TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NE PACIFIC, THAT MAY SEND SOME MOISTURE UP OUR WAY TO GET SOME
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUT FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE NORTH INTERIOR
COOLER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 20S.
LOWER 20S POSSIBLE IN WHATCOM COUNTY, AS WELL AS WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER, IN THE MID TO LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S, EXCEPT UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY IN THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR AND STRAIT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SIGNAL A WARMER BUT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT, THESE WILL WILL
GENERATE SEVERAL STRONGER BUT FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT
WILL SWEEP ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH SNOW
LEVELS UP TO AROUND 2000-3000 FT. WHILE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS DON'T
LOOK TO BE NOTEWORTHY AT THIS POINT, THESE WILL BE WINDIER SYSTEMS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE PASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH HIGHS GOING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, REACHING THE LOW 50S SUNDAY AND ONWARD. LOWS
RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
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AVIATION
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE COOL WITH
AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR. THIS WILL ACT TO
DRY THE LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHAT, BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR OR LIFR
STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR, SOUTH PUGET SOUND AND AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF HOOD CANAL.
LOCAL GUSTY SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR KBLI.
KSEA...TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE
AROUND MVFR THRESHOLDS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO
PRIMARILY VFR THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHERLY 7 KNOTS OR
LESS WILL VEER N/NE 8 TO 11 KNOTS AFTER AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING.
27
MARINE
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THE OREGON WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FOR A BRIEF
INCREASE IN FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW AND EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
STRAIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE STRAIT AND
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS AND A WEAK RIDGE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND FOR INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LIKELY WIND RELATED
HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, STRAIT ENTRANCES, AND NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FEET INTO THURSDAY, BUT
INCREASED ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND WILL DRIVE SEAS
BACK INTO HAZARDOUS DOUBLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL LARGE
SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE.
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HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST
THURSDAY FOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SAN JUAN
COUNTY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-ISLAND COUNTY-LAKE
CRESCENT AREA INCLUDING US 101-PORT TOWNSEND AREA-WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
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