886
FXUS66 KSEW 191028
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
228 AM PST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH
TODAY. A BRIEF RIDGE WILL DRY THE REGION OUT LATER TODAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. A BLAST OF COLD AIR FROM THE FRASER
RIVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS,
WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DIG DOWN OFFSHORE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A STACKED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER. THIS TROUGH WILL SPIN AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY HAVE DIMINISHED, AND
REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX FROM EARLIER ARE MOVING WESTWARD OVER
NORTH CLALLAM COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE
SOUTH INTERIOR/SOUTH PUGET SOUND WHERE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH. THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CHEHALIS VALLEY/I-5 CORRIDOR (AND THIS HAS
KEPT THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN). TO THE WEST IN THE BLACK HILLS,
IT IS CLOSER TO FREEZING AND WSDOT CAMERAS INDICATE SNOW ON THE
SIDES OF THE ROADS ON SR-8. TO THE NORTH, NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP, BRINGING COOLER FRASER RIVER AIR INTO THE NORTH
INTERIOR (DOWN TO AS FAR AS CLALLAM COUNTY). THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING FOR WEST WHATCOM,
SAN JUAN, NORTH CLALLAM, AND ALSO WEST CENTRAL SNOHOMISH
COUNTIES FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW 20S TO TEENS THIS MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A
BRIEF RIDGE THAT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME CLOUD-FREE BLUE SKY IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY
(ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR AND COAST) - ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 FOR MANY TODAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES HOWEVER WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS THE
FRASER AIR IS REINFORCED BY NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH (THOUGH
THE OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT). WIND CHILLS/APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME BRISK AGAIN IN THE MID 20S,
AND MAY SPREAD TO OTHER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A MARGINAL WARM UP (HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S). THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT LOW DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR THE PACIFIC COAST AND MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AS WARMER AIR IS BROUGHT IN SATURDAY (HIGHS
CLOSER TO 50S), LOWLANDS WILL ONLY BE EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN WITH
ANY SHOWERS, WHILE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW ABOVE 2,000 FT FOR
THE CASCADES, AND 3,000 FT IN THE OLYMPICS. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE DAY SATURDAY. BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE CASCADES AND THE
PACIFIC COAST. MOST LIKELY GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH.
LASTLY, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OFFSHORE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF CONDITIONS FOR BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MOST ENSEMBLES KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HYDROLOGIC FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES, AS WELL AS
SNOW LEVELS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE, BUT LARGE-SCALE
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW BEING SPREAD ACROSS
SEVERAL DAYS (WEDNESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WHERE THE SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS).
HPR
AVIATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND
THEN PUSH INLAND INTO OR. RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WA COASTAL
WATERS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CHEHALIS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SOUND THIS MORNING. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE ALSO STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AS WELL. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE
RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCLM WHICH HAS
BEEN REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. SNOW MAY CONTINUE TO MIX IN WITH RAIN
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT ANY OF THE AREA
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS REMAIN MIXED EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT GENERALLY MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR, WITH A FEW
SPOTS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A RETURN TO OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUND TERMINALS AND INCREASED TO 4-8 KT. GUSTY CONDITIONS,
WITH WINDS TO 30 KT, CONTINUE AT KBLI AS FRASER OUTFLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FRASER OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER 18Z
AND WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE NORTHERN AREAS DRIER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
KSEA...CONDITIONS GENERALLY MVFR AT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING,
THOUGH COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR/LIFR BRIEFLY IN ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY OR PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHERLY
AT 4-8 KT, BUT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY 18Z.
14
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE,
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BREEZY FRASER OUTFLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND EASTERN STRAIT AND EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STRAIT THIS MORNING. FRASER
OUTFLOW WILL EASE LATE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO EASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5-8
FT.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND, INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND LIKELY BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY GALES TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS LOOK TO BUILD TO 14-18 FT, THOUGH LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF COASTAL SEAS BUILDING TO GREATER THAN 18 FT.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LIKELY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEADLINES.
14
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR LOWLANDS OF
WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SAN JUAN COUNTY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
DOWNTOWN EVERETT / MARYSVILLE AREA-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA-ISLAND COUNTY-LAKE CRESCENT AREA INCLUDING US 101-
PORT TOWNSEND AREA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
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