395
FXUS66 KSEW 200431
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
831 PM PST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH TRANSIENT RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER-LOW DIGS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOWLAND RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS AREAS OF TERRAIN
SUCH AS THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS INCLUDING LAKE CUSHMAN/HOOD
CANAL. SOME SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THESE AREAS BUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT,
CONDITIONS ARE SLATED TO DRY OUT AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS IN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. FRASER OUTFLOW WILL PERSIST BUT WEAKEN
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND INTERIOR. NONETHELESS, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY
FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 F ARE EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S.
RIDGING WILL NOT ONLY BRING DRY WEATHER BUT RELATIVELY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT IT'LL BE THE START OF A
WARMING TREND LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN PROGRESSION IN
THE UPPER-LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS MODELS HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AXIS EAST OF WESTERN WA, OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN LOCK-STEP, SHOWING AN
UPPER-LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SITTING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE US WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL
SWING SHORTWAVES INTO THE PNW, ALLOWING THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD
LOWLAND RAINFALL, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND EVEN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADE GAPS ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOST ENSEMBLES KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY,
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION VIA SHORTWAVES CONTINUING
DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S THROUGH
THE LONG- TERM, RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HYDROLOGIC FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, BUT THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES, AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE, BUT
LARGE-SCALE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW BEING SPREAD
ACROSS SEVERAL DAYS (WEDNESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WHERE THE SNOW
MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS).
41
AVIATION
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ONSHORE. THE LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY THIS EVENING AND ANY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF KSEA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR MUCH
OF FRIDAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND LEVEL MOISTURE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF PUGET SOUND ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST NEAR
OR AFTER 00Z.
KSEA...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 3000 FEET
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHERLY 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL EASE THIS EVENING THEN BACK TO LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AS SUCH INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
27
MARINE
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, HOLDING IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE. SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 20-25 KT ASSOCIATED WITH FRASER OUTFLOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING TOO, BUT THESE ARE DECREASING AND LESS WIDESPREAD.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND, INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND LIKELY BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY GALES TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 18 FT OR LARGER RANGE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY
CONTRIBUTION.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS GUSTY WINDS
AND LARGER SEAS REINFORCED BY EACH SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD.
CULLEN
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT
LATER NEXT WEEK CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FLOODING ON
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. STARTING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TO RAISE THE SNOW LEVEL. WITH THE
THIN MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK AND EXISTENCE OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW, RAIN
ON SNOW COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SNOW MELT GETTING ADDED TO THE
OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO RESULT
IN FLOODING.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR LOWLANDS OF
WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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